Financials

Report by ResearchGreece

Recent weakness relates to investors pricing in steeper ECB rate cuts and lower rates in 2025 and 2026 than both before the central bank's Oct 17th meeting and compared to what banks have plugged in their RoTE guidance. However, ResearchGreece believes the market is overreacting to the potential earnings downgrade. If market expectations materialise, their earnings estimates are facing a 3%-7% downgrade in 2025 and 4%-6% in 2026. While a 40-100bps hit to their 2025-2026 RoTE estimates is not pleasant, it is not game changing either. ResearchGreece estimates P/TBV 2026 multiples at c.0.80x for Alpha and c.0.90x for NBG, Piraeus and Eurobank, implying 30% (NBG) to 90% (Alpha) upside from current levels.

Financials

Report by ResearchGreece

The Greek bank announces an agreement with UniCredit a) to merge their Romanian operations, with ALPHA keeping a 10% stake in the combined entity while pocketing €300m; b) the two sides entering a commercial partnership in asset management and unit linked products, with UCG buying 51% in AlphaLife Insurance; and c) with the Italian bank submitting a bid to buy HFSF’s 9% stake in ALPHA. ResearchGreece considers this to be a win:win for both sides and with the overhang lifted, they upgrade ALPHA to Buy with a TP of €1.84; sees limited downside to current trading of 0.47x TBV.