EVENTS:   Acceleration in the Energy Transition - David Scott/CHA-AM Advisors - 12 May 26     ROADSHOWS: Consumer Research & Industry Trends focused on US Retail, E-Tail, and Consumer Products Companies - Scott Mushkin /R5 Capital   •   London   07 - 08 May 26       US Equity Short Research & Strategy - Zach Shannon /Corto Capital Advisors   •   New York   18 - 19 May 26       Investing in Constraint: Governance, Scarcity, and the Next Phase of the Energy Transition - François Boutin-Dufresne & Félix-A. Boudreault & Lenka Martinek /Sustainable Market Strategies   •   London   18 - 19 May 26      

Macro Tailwinds Persist — What to Use as Early Warning Indicators

Variant Perception

Wed 29 Oct 2025 - 15:00 GMT / 11:00 EDT / 16:00 CET

Summary

Tian discussed Variant Perception’s constructive macro outlook, noting that global growth remains resilient with supportive liquidity and easing monetary policy creating favourable conditions for risk assets. He compared the current cycle to 2002 to 2003, expecting a jobless but productive recovery driven by private credit growth and stable consumer demand. Inflation is projected to stay above target yet manageable, allowing rate cuts without triggering a recession. He identified two key risks, simultaneous deterioration in credit and volatility, and a bad steepening of yields following rate cuts. Tian anticipated a broadening of equity rallies towards emerging markets, small caps and value stocks, continued strength in technology, and commodities gradually catching up with gold. He also highlighted that the AI and semiconductor cycle is more durable due to geopolitical imperatives, retail investor activity reflects abundant liquidity, and fiscal challenges will likely be managed through financial repression rather than crisis.

Topics

• Leading indicators remain supportive for the outlook for risk assets, with Eurozone and China top country picks.

• Although macro backdrop remains good many asset classes have low embedded risk premia and high valuations.

• The North American semiconductor capital cycle score remains healthy and stronger than tech hardware, software and European or Asian semiconductors.