EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Macro Tailwinds Persist — What to Use as Early Warning Indicators

Variant Perception

Wed 29 Oct 2025 - 15:00 GMT / 11:00 EDT / 16:00 CET

Summary

Tian discussed Variant Perception’s constructive macro outlook, noting that global growth remains resilient with supportive liquidity and easing monetary policy creating favourable conditions for risk assets. He compared the current cycle to 2002 to 2003, expecting a jobless but productive recovery driven by private credit growth and stable consumer demand. Inflation is projected to stay above target yet manageable, allowing rate cuts without triggering a recession. He identified two key risks, simultaneous deterioration in credit and volatility, and a bad steepening of yields following rate cuts. Tian anticipated a broadening of equity rallies towards emerging markets, small caps and value stocks, continued strength in technology, and commodities gradually catching up with gold. He also highlighted that the AI and semiconductor cycle is more durable due to geopolitical imperatives, retail investor activity reflects abundant liquidity, and fiscal challenges will likely be managed through financial repression rather than crisis.

Topics

• Leading indicators remain supportive for the outlook for risk assets, with Eurozone and China top country picks.

• Although macro backdrop remains good many asset classes have low embedded risk premia and high valuations.

• The North American semiconductor capital cycle score remains healthy and stronger than tech hardware, software and European or Asian semiconductors.