Summary

MS discussed a sharp, broad-based surge in memory pricing, describing panic buying driven not only by AI demand but also by supply disruptions as suppliers pivot away from legacy nodes towards newer DRAM and LPDDR generations, with the pricing move expected to flow more fully into supplier earnings in Q1 2026 and potentially into Q2 as well. He argued margins could break historical peaks, highlighted a shifting competitive dynamic with Samsung “coming back” and CXMT recovering, and framed 2026 as exceptionally strong while expecting supply responses and utilisation increases to steer the industry towards a more balanced 2027, alongside a more complex HBM4 landscape where both performance and yield matter and Micron is unlikely to be shut out. He also warned that higher input costs are pressuring handset and PC makers, citing content cuts and meaningful downside shipment scenarios, while pointing to structural geopolitical risk and accelerating Chinese capacity and market ambition as key longer-run forces that could intensify competition into 2027 and 2028.

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