Summary

Dr. Ed Yardeni discussed a bullish market outlook built on earnings momentum rather than speculative hype. He framed current market strength as “FEMO” rather than FOMO, arguing that AI, data, cloud infrastructure and high tech capex are already feeding through into revenues, margins and profits. On that basis, he sees scope for the S&P 500 to reach 8,250 by end 2026, with 10,000 still plausible by end 2029, provided recession is avoided and earnings keep surprising positively. A central part of his case was productivity. Stronger productivity, in his view, can lift real growth, contain unit labour cost inflation and support record profit margins, making this cycle more resilient than sceptics assume. Main risks sit around oil, Middle East disruption and any renewed inflation shock that forces Fed policy tighter. He also pushed back against a simple K shaped consumer story, arguing instead that baby boomer wealth is helping younger households manage affordability pressures, keeping consumption sturdier than headline income data might suggest.

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