Summary

Thanos began his presentation by highlighting that economic, social, and political crises are a regular global occurrence. COVID, although massively impactful, is not unique. Regarding the recent US election, the situation in Georgia was discussed as well as a possible trend towards a more left-wing democratic party. He argues that a left shift it is unlikely until the next set of mid-term elections. Regarding Brexit, the uncertainty of the situation has been most the most damaging outcome, rather than the possibility of a deal or a no deal. US foreign policy will see Biden shifting away from the UK, most likely heading towards a closer relationship with Macron and Europe in general. The COVID crisis and current geopolitics is bringing the EU closer together. Putin is predicted to tread carefully with both the EU and the US, with Biden using his skills in foreign relations to calm situations. In the Middle East, Biden will seek to assist in reform in Iran and across the region. Thanos then spoke on COVID, arguing that we are past the worst periods of infection and the data illustrates that global recovery is underway. Although on the surface advanced economies are heading into large quantities of debt, not spending in this crisis would have caused significantly more damage. Investment themes were then outlined including, a stronger Europe, receding globalisation, stronger China, inflation and ESG. Germany vs. France was then debated, with France coming out on top economically after November. Positivity towards Chinese markets was expressed, and their future potential applauded. Additionally, positive turns towards Eastern Europe as well as Latin America were also highlighted. Thanos then discussed the US in detail, warning of a negative 10-year treasury but did view High Yield as a positive fixed income asset class. For commodities, oil and copper are looking particularly good. On currency, a negative outlook was predicted for the dollar, whilst the Euro was given a positive outlook as of March. The Turkish lira and South African Rand were both given neutral outlooks. In conclusion, the Mexican Pesos and the Korean Wan are also on the up.

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