Summary

Brian focused on Middle Eastern geography and ideology, oil, Turkey’s energy woes and potential regional flashpoints. There are three opposing ideologies that are causing friction. First, Islamism (or Political Islam) with the idea that there should be a democracy but imposed through a strict interpretation of religion which is mainly seen through Turkey, the AKP and Erdoğan, as well as Qatar, Hamas, Libya and Somalia. Then there is the Militaristic Nationalism approach displayed by the MHP and CHP in Turkey, as well as Egypt, Russia, Syria and Sudan. Finally, there is Khomeinsim, which is Iran and Hezbollah, who believe in the spread of absolute rule by a religious authority. Brian explains how local conflicts are being shaped to fit the overarching narrative of an epic conflict and proxy forces are being moved from area to area as they are needed by their Great Power sponsor. The two main sponsors, the US and Russia, control many of the land routes through borders. Mosul is key for control of Northern Syria and Northern Iraq, as well as the Ablu Kamal border and al-Tanf, where the US military is positioned. Furthermore, Russia is building a robust defence presence on the Med, mostly looking to contain Turkey, but allows Russia to act as an arbiter of power.\nTurkey’s lack of energy deposits and reliance on importing 98% of their energy is worrying for credit growth. Erdoğan’s plan was for the Nebucco pipeline to gather gas from Iraq, Iran and all of central Asia, to pump it through Turkey and then onto Europe, to act as a gas hub, in order to secure the lowest price and have a constant flow of dollars to pay service debts. A big impetus for this are the lengthy contracts Turkey signed with Russia which locks them into high gas prices. Erdoğan’s past actions have made him many enemies within the region. Egypt, Israel, Cyprus and Greece are planning their own pipeline through Europe, cutting out Turkey to eliminate the possibility of a Turkish gas hub. Whilst not necessarily a full-out war, conflict between Turkey and Greece would increase tensions and pose a real risk. \nIran and Saudi Arabia are a concern if the US leave the region and the MBS provokes a fight. The Horn of Africa is identified as an area of potential tension. Small scale conflict exists between Sudan and Ethiopia as well as growing civil war in Ethiopia. Turkey has set up training base’s in Mogadishu, training Somalian troops to be used as a Turkish expeditionary force that can be deployed when needed. The Ethiopian Renaissance Dam is also a major ticking time bomb. It provides hydroelectric power for the entire region and prevents flooding. Egypt’s use of the Nile water beyond their allocation could mean that if Ethiopia were to have a drought, the Grand High Ashwan Dam, which Egypt relies on for much of their power, will stop working due a lack of water pressure. In the next 5 years, given Egypt’s population growth, they could be reduced to water poverty levels. Brian concluded by discussing the Syrian Nightmare, in which the country is in need of big investment, US 1bn to US 2bn will be required, and meanwhile Assad cant take control of its entirety, even with Russian help, due to all the competing factions. The biggest concern is the Saudi’s. MBS has made many enemies and, if the US pull out from intervening, he will make a move, which could be bloody. With oil prices lower than his budgetary needs, this will only increase the overall tension."

Topics