Summary

Paul explained how EV production is becoming more cost competitive each year and it will soon be cheaper to buy an EV than a gasoline car even without the subsidies. In addition, with the decreasing use of diesel cars, big car manufacturers have focused on electric and autonomous vehicle production. EVs are just the steppingstone to autonomous vehicles and the 15-minute city i.e. being able to go anywhere by walking or cycling within 15 minutes.

Paul argues that there are big supply chain problems coming in and millions of cars cannot be produced this year because of a shortage of chips. Which is another reason for this industry transformation.

EV production is becoming more cost competitive every year with battery costs coming down 20% a year. So, within 18 months, you are going to be at the crossover point for cost equivalents with ICS, internal capacity and engines, gasoline or diesel. Paul argues that we will see the age of oil coming to an end as 76% of oil demand in the states is for transport. Over the next 10 years that switch to EVs, which will be cheaper and so the demand for oil will die out. Electricity is the fuel of the future.

Autonomous vehicles, Paul argues, will become more integrated into society as the technology develops including navigation, which is a problem for manufacturers currently such as in dealing with philosophical questions such as where the car should swerve and hit in an accident.

The winners, according to Pauupply chain players integrated, but niche producers. The losers are going to be oil companies because of battery swapping and sustainability.

Companies discussed includes: Volkswagen, Hertz, Ford Motor Company, General Motors, Fiat, Apple, Tesla, Exxon Mobil, Shell, Toyota Motor Corp, Uber, ICE, Stagecoach, Porsche, Varta, United Parcel Service (UPS), Allison Transmission, Cummins, China Hongguang, Nio, BorgWarner and Bosch.

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