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The Liquidity Threat Looming Over Markets in 2022

GL Indexes

Fri 04 Feb 2022 - 14:00

Summary

CrossBorder look very closely, when they analyze liquidity, what the effect is of the amount of liquidity that goes into the system. On the call, Michael mentioned that if you look at the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, as we speak, is still expanding. But Michael argues that the amount of money that has been dished into markets for various reasons has been falling for several weeks now. And that's a backdrop for what has been opening to 2022 for world stock markets and Michael believes it’s likely to get worse. He contends that we’re really at a cliff edge when it comes to looking at the other liquidity backdrop on what central banks are doing. Michael’s view is that central banks have become so important in the financial system that they simply can't step away. They're here for the long-term now. And because of that they're going to have to put more liquidity back into the markets at some stage.

Topics

Risk of major policy error in dealing with inflation step-up

Inflation is 'sticky' and more 'transitory', but longer-term deflation trends are more powerful

Global liquidity is likely to weaken noticeably in scale by early 2022

World economy is starting to slow as liquidity injections fade

PBoC is shrinking B/S from existing 'flat' level

China is refocussing policy on stability not growth

Bond markets have asymmetric risks, with yield upside limited by debt overhang

Equity markets vulnerable to taper

Currencies appear more stable than might be expected, USD may be a casualty?