EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

The Liquidity Threat Looming Over Markets in 2022

GL Indexes

Fri 04 Feb 2022 - 14:00

Summary

CrossBorder look very closely, when they analyze liquidity, what the effect is of the amount of liquidity that goes into the system. On the call, Michael mentioned that if you look at the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve, as we speak, is still expanding. But Michael argues that the amount of money that has been dished into markets for various reasons has been falling for several weeks now. And that's a backdrop for what has been opening to 2022 for world stock markets and Michael believes it’s likely to get worse. He contends that we’re really at a cliff edge when it comes to looking at the other liquidity backdrop on what central banks are doing. Michael’s view is that central banks have become so important in the financial system that they simply can't step away. They're here for the long-term now. And because of that they're going to have to put more liquidity back into the markets at some stage.

Topics

Risk of major policy error in dealing with inflation step-up

Inflation is 'sticky' and more 'transitory', but longer-term deflation trends are more powerful

Global liquidity is likely to weaken noticeably in scale by early 2022

World economy is starting to slow as liquidity injections fade

PBoC is shrinking B/S from existing 'flat' level

China is refocussing policy on stability not growth

Bond markets have asymmetric risks, with yield upside limited by debt overhang

Equity markets vulnerable to taper

Currencies appear more stable than might be expected, USD may be a casualty?