The World Wants Canada's Energy – Canadian Utilities and Infrastructure Sector Outlook

Veritas Investment Research

Tue 07 Jun 2022 - 15:00 BST

Summary

Darryl started his discussion with energy demand. There's a very high correlation between our population growth and the amount of energy we consume. Another important variable is real economic growth, also tightly correlated positively to our consumption of energy. Darryl thinks demand is more likely to surprise to the upside, which is just generally good for energy investors overall. He thinks we're going to need more of everything. He thinks there are two different markets that US investors should keep mindful of. There is the non-base load market where you could see massive penetration of very low-cost renewables that don't have to have dispatch capacity, but then you're going to have about 80% of the market that are base load energy that need to be there when we require it. Following from this, Darryl explained that there’ll be a rise in Carbon Capture usage in Canada following the rise in CO2 tax and in order to reach their 2030 emission targets. Ultimately, Darryl’s outlook for Canada is that he thinks it's plausible that they could add another 500,000 barrels or so per day to their exports, but that's going to be limited by infrastructure. Finally, Darryl mentioned a few Utility stock ideas that they cover: Enbridge, OzNet, Alaskan utilities, Canadian Utilities, Hydro One, Floris, Algonquin and Alta.

Topics

What carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is, what exactly it means and its potential impacts on various players

Why accounting matters (materiality of accounting policy to EV and non-GAAP)

Why Veritas like thermal energy despite its environmental risk

How sector returns rank

Supply/demand outlook: Forecasts likely understate demand

Natural gas vs renewables: costs of natural gas vs wind and solar with storage and how those costs change with decarbonization policies

Future of CCUS and opportunities for their top picks.