Summary

On the Group call with Vanda Insights, Vandana Hari suggests expectations for global oil demand is going to exceed that of 2019. The downside risk is a severe recession in the West, especially if it's coupled with a lacklustre recovery in China. OPEC recently responded to the March banking crisis with cuts trying to prevent inventories from building up. Vandana argues that Russia has managed to divert the crude that was originally going to the EU to India, China, and Turkey. We’re seeing a narrative of Russia, Middle East and Asia becoming more cohesive partners against the US. Despite the tail risk of oil price bullishness Vandana believes the economic slowdown will accelerate putting downward pressure on prices. As a result she sees prices averaging between $70 to $80 per barrel this year.

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