EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Central Banks Lag Powell’s and Summers’s Transformation

Talking Heads Macro

Wed 14 Jun 2023 - 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT

Summary

Manoj, along with Charles Goodhart, have been particularly prescient on inflation. On this call Manoj updated his inflation expectations with views on central banks, the labour market, China, and services vs goods, by highlighting five structural reversals.

Topics

Powell and Summers have undergone a dramatic transformation, with both now concerned about structural inflation.

Bernanke and Blanchard provide a less-than-convincing interpretation of the causes of inflation, failing to distinguish between demand-led and supply-led inflation.

Central banks are stuck in the mindset of the Beveridge Curve - that is an invitation to persistently higher inflation.

Inflation dynamics themselves are changing, and creating slack in the labour market which holds the key to the direction of inflation.