Summary

Julian Brigden highlights a looming credit cycle that will impact Capex to retail sales, as consumer borrowing support wanes. Retailers with high inventories face challenges as sales decrease, possibly triggering a manufacturing inventory cycle. In construction, the Great Migration's spike raises recessionary concerns, particularly for vulnerable multifamily housing. Europe, especially Germany, faces economic volatility due to its manufacturing-based economy. Inflation's impact is explored, questioning the Goldilocks scenario. Nominal GDP's relevance in an inflationary context is emphasized. Base effects and currency fluctuations are expected to influence inflation levels across the US, Europe, and Japan. Labor markets, wages, and their inflation implications are discussed, as are monetary policies, stock market effects, and the potential for a bear market. The foreign exchange market's vulnerability and monitoring EURUSD levels are noted. Julian highlighted the interconnectedness of these factors, indicating concerns about the impending credit cycle and potential recession amidst fluctuating inflation and global market dynamics.

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