The Coming Deflation. Where Will it Hurt the Most?

AAS Economics

Wed 18 Oct 2023 - 14:00 BST / 09:00 EDT

Summary

Derek Sicklen and Dr. Frank Shostak argue that several major economies, including the USA, Eurozone, Japan, UK, Canada, and Australia, are experiencing negative money supply growth rates, indicating a deflationary trend. They suggest that negative CPI growth rates, indicating deflation, could lead to a decline in industrial production, stock market returns, and bond yields. They express concerns about the property markets, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and delinquency rates in various loan categories, all of which are interconnected and impacted by the collapse in money supply growth. Frank and Derek advise having a dynamic and cyclical approach to asset allocation in response to the evolving economic conditions.

Topics

Outright retail price deflation will arrive in western economies by late 2024

Neither central banks nor investors are expecting this

What is driving it?

Which countries will see the greatest deflation?

How will markets react?

When will it end?