EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

The Coming Deflation. Where Will it Hurt the Most?

AAS Economics

Wed 18 Oct 2023 - 14:00 BST / 09:00 EDT

Summary

Derek Sicklen and Dr. Frank Shostak argue that several major economies, including the USA, Eurozone, Japan, UK, Canada, and Australia, are experiencing negative money supply growth rates, indicating a deflationary trend. They suggest that negative CPI growth rates, indicating deflation, could lead to a decline in industrial production, stock market returns, and bond yields. They express concerns about the property markets, commercial mortgage-backed securities, and delinquency rates in various loan categories, all of which are interconnected and impacted by the collapse in money supply growth. Frank and Derek advise having a dynamic and cyclical approach to asset allocation in response to the evolving economic conditions.

Topics

Outright retail price deflation will arrive in western economies by late 2024

Neither central banks nor investors are expecting this

What is driving it?

Which countries will see the greatest deflation?

How will markets react?

When will it end?