Summary

Jonathan Wilmot discussed key themes during the call: the resilience of US economic growth and the impact of AI on productivity, referred to as "AI everywhere." He noted the potential peak in longer-dated US yields, suggesting the end of tightening by the Federal Reserve and other central banks, which might favor bonds over equities in the short term. Wilmot highlighted AI's role in driving productivity growth and discussed the potential for higher economic growth. He touched on the impact of AI on various economic sectors and mentioned potential implications for inflation. He discussed the long cycles in US equities and suggested that the current cycle started in 1982, implying a potential bear market in the future. Regarding the economic cycle, he predicted a slowdown in the US economy due to factors like decreased consumer spending and reduced government spending. He concluded by discussing the value proposition of bonds compared to stocks, emphasizing the competitive real return on bonds. Overall, Wilmot's call focused on the current economic landscape, the transformative potential of AI on productivity, and his market outlook, highlighting the importance of understanding changing macroeconomic dynamics.

Topics