EVENTS:   A Generational Opportunity to Invest in the Nuclear Renaissance - - 22 Jun 26   Where is the National Bureau of Economic Analysis? - Danielle DiMartino Booth/QI Research - 25 Jun 26     ROADSHOWS: Where is the National Bureau of Economic Analysis? - Danielle DiMartino Booth /QI Research   •   London   21 - 26 Jun 26       Internet and Media Coverage and Ideas - Barton Crockett /Rosenblatt Securities   •   London   22 - 23 Jun 26      

Markets Can’t Get Everything they Want (and Expect)

Minack Advisors

The Lansdowne Club, 9 Fitzmaurice Pl, London W1J 5JD

Thu 15 Feb 2024 - 12:30 GMT

Topics

Markets have entered 2024 expecting many good things this year: US inflation returning to target, significant Fed rates cuts, a soft economic landing and S&P EPS growth accelerating at a double-digit pace

Any one of these forecasts could be correct. Perhaps two. But it’s almost impossible to see that all could be correct at the same time

Which market expectations is wrong will depend in part on the cycle: whether the now-consensus soft-landing eventuates, or whether the still-live risk of a hard landing unfolds

Rate markets will face the biggest adjustment in the soft landing scenario. US 10 year rates are not likely to be falling below 4% in a soft landing, they are likely to be pushing through 5%.