EVENTS:   The Roaring 2020s or a Rerun of the 1970s? - Edward Yardeni/Yardeni Research - 24 Mar 26   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 13 - Thomas Chanos/Badger Consultants & Dr. Aaron Fletcher/Bios Research & Jonathan Telgener/Channel Dynamics & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & John Zolidis/Quo Vadis Capital & Mark Hiley/The Analyst - 26 Mar 26     ROADSHOWS: Chinese Equity Ideas & Channel Checks Across 50 sub-sectors - Don Ma /Horizon Insights   •   London   23 - 27 Mar 26       Long Short European Equity Research - Harry Grist /The Analyst   •   New York   26 Mar 26       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   27 - 27 Mar 26      

Markets Can’t Get Everything they Want (and Expect)

Minack Advisors

The Lansdowne Club, 9 Fitzmaurice Pl, London W1J 5JD

Thu 15 Feb 2024 - 12:30 GMT

Topics

Markets have entered 2024 expecting many good things this year: US inflation returning to target, significant Fed rates cuts, a soft economic landing and S&P EPS growth accelerating at a double-digit pace

Any one of these forecasts could be correct. Perhaps two. But it’s almost impossible to see that all could be correct at the same time

Which market expectations is wrong will depend in part on the cycle: whether the now-consensus soft-landing eventuates, or whether the still-live risk of a hard landing unfolds

Rate markets will face the biggest adjustment in the soft landing scenario. US 10 year rates are not likely to be falling below 4% in a soft landing, they are likely to be pushing through 5%.