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French Election: The Aftermath

Aurora Macro Strategies

Tue 09 Jul 2024 - 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT

Summary

Dimitris Valatsas discusses the current political situation in France and its potential impact on domestic and international affairs. He believes that further reforms in France are unlikely and that the focus will shift to international and European policymaking. Valatsas also discusses the volatility of the OAT DBR spread and predicts that it will remain high. He states that Macron will not resign and will serve out his term until 2027. Valatsas also touches on other European countries, including Italy and the UK, and shares his views on their fiscal situations. The transcript concludes with a discussion on the upcoming US presidential election and its potential impact on global macroeconomic trends.

Topics

Are markets right to be concerned about France's new government?

Is the country's position in the Eurozone and the EU under threat?

Can OAT spreads widen further?

Is contagion to other weak Eurozone countries likely?

What is the ECB's role?

What are the key dates to watch as the French drama unfolds?