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Latest on Russia, Central Asia and the Caucasus

Macro-Advisory

Wed 31 Jul 2024 - 15:00 BST / 10:00 EDT

Summary

On the call with Chris Weafer of Macro-Advisory, the state of the Russian economy was discussed. Weafer stated that despite global sanctions, Russia's economy seems stable and strong. However, new U.S. sanctions on foreign banks could threaten this stability next year and the Russian government is open to peace talks to address that. While there is growth, Weafer highlighted an overheating consumer sector resulting from increased military spending. He also pointed out that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan might see better credit ratings thanks to their economic growth. The analysis covered the Caucasus states, especially Armenia and Georgia, where local politics affect economic ties. Weafer addressed the Russian Ruble’s stability, with the central bank aiming for a rate of 85 to 90 to the dollar. He expressed worries about supply issues as companies face challenges in foreign trade due to sanctions. The discussion included inflation, government debt, and efforts to attract foreign investment in a changing economic environment post-conflict. Overall, despite challenges from sanctions, Weafer is cautiously optimistic about the future of the Russian economy and its neighbours.

Topics

  • Update on the macroeconomic and political situation in the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus regions and the implications for investors
  • Update on the conflict in Ukraine and what investors can expect, in terms of:
    • New sanctions and enforcement
    • Geopolitical implications
    • Scenarios and probabilities for de-escalation
    • Opportunities in terms of the Ukraine recovery story
    • Impact and implications of elections in UK, Europe, and the U.S.
  • How countries like Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia are managing the growing rivalries and the soft power competition between the U.S. and both China and Russia
  • Update on politics in Kazakhstan and how Tokayev is managing the process of transition away from the Nazarbayev family's rule and influence, as well as the implications for investors
  • Update on F/X trends in the region
  • Where is Russia now, and how is it managing its transition away from political and economic engagement with the West
    • Impact on the macroeconomic picture
    • Relationship with China
    • Position in the developing world and growing influence in the southern hemisphere
    • Expansion of BRICS and implications:
      • Geopolitics
      • Investors
      • Regional influence
  • Energy pricing trends and implications for the region's economies and markets
  • Update on the view from inside the Washington Beltway and what it means for investors in the region