Consumer Discretionary

Report by India Independent Insight

Iii conducted channel checks across the 3 companies to assess demand, competition and store economics. Footfall is flat to modestly down, growth is increasingly promotion- or online-led and store-level productivity appears constrained - pointing to normalisation rather than reacceleration in discretionary demand. On FirstCry, consensus expects multichannel growth to reaccelerate to mid-to-high teens via RocketBees and FC Quick, however, Iii believes execution delays and intense competition will keep growth in low single digits. For Bluestone, the Street assumes Q3’s operating leverage and ~12% pre-IndAS EBITDA margin are sustainable, but Iii expects margins to deteriorate within 1-3 quarters as seasonally weaker revenues expose a high fixed-cost base. At AVL, incremental store expansion appears supported by discounting and channel inventory build rather than productivity-led leverage.

Consumer Staples

Report by India Independent Insight

Iii’s Bharat Connect Flash report provides insights, anecdotes and narratives that they pick up as part of their regular on the ground checks and that could potentially emerge as more significant trends or issues, warranting deeper attention. Highlights from their latest note which focuses on consumer durables include: 1) WHIRL’s offline sales are slowing down due to lack of price parity with online sales, lack of company support and flat consumer sentiment. 2) AVL’s competitive advantage is uncertain, with some stores emphasising lower prices and others focusing on service. 3) EMIL differentiates through a better shopping experience and pricing is not a major issue for growth. 4) EUREKAFO hasn't seen a change in the total cost of ownership (TCO).