Report by AIR Capital

Greece is healing - after a brutal 15-year wait, the country has finally regained its BBB investment-grade rating from Fitch. Despite chronic under-investment in infrastructure, Greek corporates have expanded at home and abroad and now boast strong balance sheets, often with net cash - a rarity in Europe. Ultra-low labour costs and the highest workload in the EU have boosted competitiveness, while political stability since 2019 has restored investor confidence. Yet Greek equities still trade at half their 2008 market capitalisation, leaving substantial upside for companies that are leaner, stronger and more agile than their European peers. AIR’s Buy-rated ideas include Athens International Airport, Motor Oil, National Bank of Greece and Sarantis, each offering 40-100%+ upside.

Industrials

Report by ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece initiates coverage with a Do Not Own (DOI) rating due to a) the low-capped-earnings growth outlook; b) the uncompelling 3.6% dividend yield left over from 2023 (paid in 2024); c) DCF/DDM valuation; and d) the warranted discount to peers given the shorter remaining concession life. Some investors may consider the average dividend yield of c.8% between 2024-2046, assuming a 100% payout ratio, to be a good enough reason to own the stock, but weak earnings growth (2023-2030 clean EBITDA CAGR at +0.7% and EPS CAGR at -0.4%), means the dividend yield edges closer to 6.6%-7.4% in 2025-2030. Therefore, they fail to see any upside or capital appreciation above this yield at the current share price.