Consumer Discretionary

Report by Iron Blue Financials

Iron Blue initiates coverage on ZAL with a score of 28/60, which is top decile (fertile grounds for shorting) and an outlier compared with bottom decile/quartile scores of internet peers Auto Trader (13/60), Rightmove (11/60) and Scout24 (16/40). They highlight 1) Increased use of stripped out restructuring and other costs. 2) Stripped out share-based payments (27% PBT adj). 3) Profit recovery supported by compressed fulfillment, marketing and inventories provision expenses. 4) Pronounced gap between tangibles capex and the depreciation charge. Re. governance, they note CEO variable pay targets that are either undisclosed or below external targets, a non-independent Remuneration Committee and sizeable related party transactions. FY24 sees a change in auditor following the incumbent’s tenure of 13 years.

Report by Willis Welby

One easy response for equity investors faced with such a radical change in the backdrop for equity pricing this year is to assume that growth stocks can get further derated. Willis Welby, who use expectations analysis to help decode share prices, differentiates between duration stocks which require a transformation in business models and growth stocks which do not. They draw particular attention to IHG, Burberry, Compass, Sage, Auto Trader and Experian. Notable absentees from their analysis are the industrial fan club stocks of Croda, Halma and Spirax which did not make their consensus Y3 revenue growth criteria.

Report by Willis Welby

Despite Croda, Halma and Spirax having seen 40%+ share price falls YTD, Willis Welby, who specialise in expectations analysis, still struggle to make sense of the share prices. Their caution is compounded when they consider what is available elsewhere. The UK market is not renowned for its growth names, but that does not mean there are none. They see Rightmove, Auto Trader, Softcat and Experian as looking particularly attractive.

Communications

Report by Forensic Alpha

Losing its Shine - overly reliant on aggressive price increases to drive growth in an industry that is set for disruption. The company is highly dependent on small dealers, but these dealers are looking increasingly fragile and will struggle to absorb further price rises. StockViews’ research suggests dissatisfaction and bad will towards the firm is growing. In addition, CarGurus is now focusing its firepower on the UK market, while pure-online dealers, Cazoo and cinch, are growing rapidly and ultimately could disintermediate AUTO entirely. TP 400p (40% downside).