Financials
Credit Agricole acquires a 9% stake in the Italian bank sparking bid speculation - Victor Galliano believes a takeover is highly likely and expects it to be at a similar valuation to the Credito Valtellinese deal, which implies 40% upside potential for BPM's share price. The Italian bank remains one of Victor’s 2022 High Conviction Ideas; not only a modestly valued potential M&A target, but its valuations are also underpinned by improving fundamentals.
FinTech & Financials: 2022 investment themes
Financials
1. A shift into value in EM banks; cautious on digital banks - top picks are Sberbank, Banco do Brasil and HDFC Bank. Nubank likely to be one of the EM FinTech big negative surprises of 2022.
2. Southern Europe banks, position for the prospect of higher interest rates - highlights BBVA and Banco BPM.
3. Exchanges, competitive pressures are real, but are they priced in - B3 and Singapore Exchange standout.
4. Growth and value in digital payments - highlights Mastercard and, for its deep value, PagSeguro.
5. Digital wealth managers, picking a potential winner - BTG Pactual.
