Industrials

Report by Northcoast Research

While LII's management has done a stellar job righting the ship over the past few years, Northcoast balances this view with their dour outlook for the North American residential HVAC market in the intermediate term, which is c.70% of the group's business. In their 36-page industry initiation report titled ‘Hot Air and Cold Realities’, they argue that while market participants appreciate the unit volume headwinds, they do not appreciate the pricing headwinds given the potential for intensifying competitive dynamics. As such, Northcoast initiates coverage of LII with a Sell rating and TP of $475 (30% downside). Other stocks covered include Carrier Global, Comfort Systems and Trane Technologies.

Industrials

Report by New Constructs

Street Earnings are higher than New Construct’s Core Earnings for 339 stocks in the S&P 500 with 186 companies overstating EPS by >10%. One of the worst offenders is CARR, where the difference between Street Earnings and Core Earnings is $1.76/share, or 76% of Street Earnings. The company’s GAAP Earnings Distortion is even higher at $3.54/share. CARR’s Stock Rating is Very Unattractive, largely due to its low ROIC of 4% and the expensive valuation of its stock. Despite trading at $45/share CARR has an EBV, or no-growth value, of -$16/share. Low ROIC and an expensive valuation also land CARR in New Construct’s Most Dangerous Stocks Model Portfolio.