Report by CTFN
On 17th Oct Choice Hotels went public with an unsolicited offer for competitor WH. The nearly $10bn enterprise value strategic deal would be one of the largest of the year. However, WH has pushed back on the approach and CHH is now preparing a proxy fight and possibly an exchange offer to land its prey. Exclusive reporting from CTFN has covered the antitrust dimensions of the deal, the tactics likely to be employed and pricing insights. Click here for the full story.
Report by Off Wall Street
Checking in with the hotels - bearish thesis on the Midscale hotel segment playing out; unit growth story appears to be broken. OWS’ latest field work finds little evidence that franchisees are interested in building new units. ADR price inflation should begin to reverse as the labour market improves. This should weigh on RevPAR (and franchisors’ royalty revenues). Furthermore, OWS found evidence that demand in key areas is softening.
Report by Off Wall Street
Choice Hotels (CHH) - Brand commoditisation + long-term supply overhang = broken unit growth story. Once the 2021 pent-up leisure boom passes, CHH’s multiple will contract to reflect its reduced long-term growth prospects. TP $69.
Focus Financial (FOCS) - Roll-up strategy is destroying value; questionable accounting. Cash ROIC continues to look very poor. TP $25.
Louisiana-Pacific (LPX) - OSB supply response will happen much faster than bulls expect. Accelerating capex / capacity expansion near cyclical peak is a mistake. TP $30.