Report by Smart Insider

Last month saw 446 insider purchases (individuals) from 346 companies, spending a total of €2.2bn. Smart Insider upgraded 15+ stocks, meaning they currently have 70+ ranked stocks and just 2- ranked stocks. Upgrades were spread out among 10 countries with Germany leading. From a sector and industry perspective, sentiment was bullish in Basic Materials and Energy (Sell/Buy Ratio 0.28) and slightly bearish in Technology (S/B Ratio 1.05). The Consumer Sectors (Discretionary & Staples) led upgrades with a combined 8+. Positive ranked stocks based on Jan insider purchases include Syensqo, Colruyt, Technip Energies, Hugo Boss, Pirelli and Ebro Foods.

Report by Vision Research

Since Vision pitched their short thesis on Vidrala, Verallia and O-I Glass at our Equity Shorting Conference in mid-Mar the stocks have underperformed the Stoxx600 by ~8%. In the last couple of months they have also initiated 3 new European shorts, 3 new US shorts, and has readied a new $7bn+ European short (trades ~$20m/day and has short interest of <1%) for initiation next week. Please join Vision for a meeting while members of their team are in Paris (Jun 5th-6th), Zurich (Jun 7th) and London (Jun 8th-12th).

In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, AutoStore, Boohoo, Burlington, Colruyt, De'Longhi, Electrolux, Gerresheimer, H&M, Hargreaves Lansdown, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC, UiPath and Whirlpool.

Industrials

Report by Vision Research

Trades >$10m/day and has <1% short interest - will be lapping price increases at a time when volumes have turned negative and there are substitution threats and declining per capita usage of products at some of its largest customers. It trades >10x EV/EBITDA on 2023 estimates that call for 40% growth in EBITDA.

In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, Boohoo, Colruyt, H&M, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC and UiPath.

Report by Vision Research

Vision has issued 3 new consumer shorts in the past 3 weeks, 2 being European and 1 US. The most recent European short has a market cap >$3bn, trades >$25m/day and SI% <10%. The company has experienced market share losses and is seeing new entrants from Asia, potentially over-earned during the pandemic, has bullish estimates, and channel inventories that look bloated. European short ideas Vision has closed over recent months include Allegro (55% alpha), Colruyt (40%), Thule Group (>30%) and Nokian Tyres (>20%).

Consumer Staples

Report by Vision Research

Belgian’s grocery market share leader looks expensive when considering the market is mature, elevated competition that is only increasing, one-time margin benefits in the prior year, and the unwinding of Covid tailwinds, especially after COLR just reported its lowest market share in more than 5 years.