Consumer Discretionary

Report by Quo Vadis Capital

John Zolidis has published a bearish framework on the Restaurant industry and believes the Street is misunderstanding implications of commodity price declines which will disadvantage the industry vs. food-at-home as grocery stores pass on lower prices. Meanwhile, he sees no argument for a stronger consumer or better traffic this year. John predicts negative same-store sales in 2H23 (which is not reflected in analyst expectations). He is most bearish on value destroyer Shake Shack, investor favourite Chipotle, and overvalued growth name Dutch Bros.