Industrials

Report by Revelare Partners

FLY was highlighted at Revelare’s Space Industry Investor Idea event - while still relatively unknown post-IPO, its current multiple prices in significant execution risk. Of its $1bn 2027 revenue target, ~$770m is backlogged and as launch cadence accelerates, EBITDA margins are expected to expand sharply to 30-40%. A diversified backlog, milestone-based contracts and a major Northrop Grumman deal further strengthen credibility. The presenter believes a $10bn valuation is reasonable as a starting point (vs. the current $6bn m/cap) and expects a positive earnings report in Nov as well as another launch coming this fall. Once long-onlys see 2-3 quarters of execution, investors will enter the stock in a much more material way.

AMZN just made history with the largest commercial launch contract ever, cementing Project Kuiper as Starlink’s most formidable competitor - in their new 9-page brief, space sector analysts at Quilty Analytics break it down, focusing on implications to the sector at large, including the three big contract winners (Arianespace, Blue Origin, ULA), the GEO market (Inmarsat, Intelsat, SES, Eutelsat) and other heavy-lift launch operators (Firefly Aerospace, Relativity Space, Rocket Lab).