Consumer Discretionary

Report by ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece is keen to see the contribution from the new IKEA stores in Patra and Crete; the roll-out of Foot Locker stores; and the recovery from the recent cyber-attack. In short, evidence that the business plan is working. Management guides for €600m in retail sales and €38m in cash EBITDA in 2025, vs Q1 sales of €118m and EBITDA loss of €1.1m. Upcoming Q2 results will be key in assessing if the implied 2025-2027 CAGR +12% sales and +24% EBITDA are on track. ResearchGreece rates Fourlis as OI (Own it).

Financials

Report by ResearchGreece

ResearchGreece are positive assuming Fourlis will sell an additional 13.3% stake and deconsolidate Trade Estates, using the proceeds to reduce net debt and grow retail sales - mostly IKEA with new stores - at E715m with EBIT at E50m by 2027, both lower than guidance of E750m and E60m in 2026. Seasonally weak Q1 results were promising with sales rising +3.8% yoy and EBITDA turning positive at E0.8m from -E0.3m. RG estimate the retail business is currently valued at 3.8x EBITDAL 2025, +50% implied upside.