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Industrials
Robert Crimes highlights GET as a unique long-duration infrastructure asset with a potential takeout emerging. Eiffage and Mundys will likely soon own ~59.8% of the company, having recently added to their positions. Insight’s buyout scenario IRR is 14.7% (at 25% share price premium of €24/share), +410bps above their deal Ke of 10.6%. While shuttle traffic remains pressured by excess ferry capacity, this has been offset by higher pricing, supporting continued revenue growth. The underlying appeal is the asset’s durable cash generation, with ~€710m recurring FCF (~6.9% yield) and long-term growth driven by pricing, traffic recovery and new high-speed rail routes.
Industrials
Robert Crimes maintains a Sell rating on ALX, citing limited upside vs. broader infrastructure peers and mixed asset quality. While ALX’s stake in APRR delivers robust FCF and steady distribution growth, its minority position and concession expiry in 2035 limit long-term value. The Chicago Skyway deal offers modest value, but DG is deeply value-destructive, with equity estimated 70% below ALX’s 2017 purchase price. ALX's infrastructure distributions are set to rise to A$920m by 2030E but collapse to A$250m in 2037E. Robert expects IFM to increase its stake, but it has had a negative impact on the share price to date and cut daily trading liquidity in half. He continues to prefer Ferrovial (+100% upside) and Getlink (+85%) in Global Toll Roads.
Transactions indicate high upside for listed Infrastructure
Industrials
Robert Crimes reviews 138 global infrastructure deals that took place between 2015 and 2023, focusing on the 38 where he had a DCF based NAV. These transactions averaged a -3% discount to Insight NAV but listed valuations trade at a -35% discount. Share prices would need to rise c.50% to close the valuation gap. Robert expects deal flow to continue driven by undervaluation of listed corporates, resilient indexed linked FCF growth and reducing COC. Insight's key Buys to arbitrage from listed to unlisted are Ferrovial, Getlink, Inwit and Cellnex.
Industrials
Reliable demand, strong unregulated pricing, high capital barriers and excellent returns - Robert Crimes initiates coverage with a Buy rating and TP of C$360 (100%+ upside). Insight’s key value added vs. The Street is application of their Global Infrastructure specific valuation framework focused on DCF and IRR, their assessment of long-term volumes, pricing and FCFs and their ability to rate CNR vs. the other Global Infrastructure stocks in their universe, rather than other North American transportation stocks. CNR enters at 4th of 24 on the Insight Stock Ranking System, after Ferrovial, Cellnex and Getlink.
The Arbitrage Between Unlisted & Listed Infrastructure Assets
Industrials
Transaction volumes have risen from €20bn p.a. in 2019-20 to €58bn in 2021, with acquirers preying on listed assets, such as ASPI, Sydney Airport, OMA and IRB. Having reviewed the 109 largest deals (2015-21), Robert Crimes reveals transportation infrastructure listed valuations are at c.30% discounts to transactions based relative to Insight’s NAV.s (set by DCF.s) and share prices need to rise c.40% to close the valuation gap. His top picks (combining undervaluation and probability of a takeover) are Inwit, Getlink, Aleatica and Ferrovial.
