Financials

Report by Smart Insider

Smart Insider ranked this stock +N on March 10th based on a €438k purchase from Carlo Pesenti (CEO since 2014, joined 1999) at €25.30 per share. He has made several option-related sales but this was his first open-market purchase. Pesenti has continued to purchase shares and has now spent a total of €2.2m at an average price of €25.09. Alarico Melissari (Senior Officer) purchased 2,000 shares from March 17-27th at €24.92, spending €50k, the most he has spent over his 9 purchases dating back to early 2019. With this additional buying, Smart Insider are upgrading the stock further, from +N to +1 (highest ranking).

Energy

Accelerating competition in hydrogen electrolyzers the key reason for continued Sell recommendations - as the industry moves to scale production (post 2025) industry dynamics for EU OEM electrolyzer incumbents turns negative: tech becomes diffused, advantage shifts to the “lowest cost at right performance” and more vertically integrated players gain share. Prior to 2025 green hydrogen production will disappoint - models only 3MW vs. EU target 6MW & Street ~4.5MW. Real demand from new industries will only really start in the 2030’s - ITM and NEL are unlikely to be independent by then and both will have to raise capital in the next few years.

HVDC players (Nexans, Prysmian and NKT) offer improved growth, margins and ROIC as interconnection becomes a key enabling technology for net zero. The US market could triple. Barriers to entry are high and incumbents are well placed to be the main beneficiaries.

Electrolyser producers (Nel and ITM Power) face increasingly competitive industry dynamics (similar to German solar in 2008) and overcapacity / pricing pressure through 2030. Current leaders are unlikely to generate cash in the coming decade or remain independent. Both could raise capital again.

Plug Power and Ballard Power Systems to benefit the most from The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act commitment to hydrogen. PLUG was cited for its industry leadership, strong management, innovation and how its recent acquisitions have expanded its offering across the hydrogen economy. BLDP is well-funded and considered the “big dog” in transportation. Other companies highlighted in Blueshift’s 31-page report include Air Liquide, Anglo American, Caterpillar, Cummins, Hyundai, ITM and Linde. Traditional oil & gas companies will also have a role to play, while Hyzon Motors and Nikola could be M&A targets.