Report by BWS Financial
The competitive landscape is intensifying and the existential risk for IRDM is getting bigger, according to Hamed Khorsand. The direct-to-device market is attracting well-capitalised entrants, with Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar and Starlink’s expansion significantly increasing capacity and bandwidth relative to IRDM’s legacy network. At the same time, a proposed FCC rule could erode the exclusivity of IRDM’s spectrum, undermining a key pillar of its valuation. Customer behaviour is also shifting, with evidence of dual-sourcing and pricing pressure. While positive FCF has supported the equity story, Hamed expects rising investment needs to weigh on future generation. The recent advance in IRDM's stock makes it a good place to short/sell shares.