Consumer Discretionary

Report by Hedgeye

A story riddled with risk - Brian McGough argues DKS is priced for perfection despite mounting structural and cyclical headwinds. Core growth is tapped out and the House of Sport concept – its only unit growth driver - is not working; comping down 20% in year 2 and down again in year 3. Inventory issues, including a Critical Audit Matter on carrying value, and gross margin risks from tariffs on private-label apparel add further pressure. Apparel (40% of sales) has turned deflationary and the Foot Locker merger is seen as immediately margin-destructive, with no strategic merits and likely to strengthen competitors such as Academy and JD Sports. Brian is incrementally of the view that the 5-year CAGR for athletic footwear in the US is -300bp below pandemic-era trends and warns that at 10x EBITDA, a historical peak, DKS is over-owned, over-earning and due for a correction.

Report by Messels

Messels currently has 19 long positions in their FTSE 100 Momentum portfolio having closed their position in Rio Tinto after it pulled back in the five-year range and broke medium term relative support. They remain overweight Retail and in particular, Howden, Tesco and Marks & Spencer which maintain uptrends and JD Sports and Kingfisher which renew base formations. Other stocks highlighted in their technical review this week include Informa, which has rallied back to the highs and rallies from relative uptrend support; while M&G finds 18-month uptrend support and develops a base at the bottom of the relative range.