More derating risks for Chinese power device vendors
Report by AceCamp International
Latest channel checks indicate that AceCamp’s negative thesis is starting to play out - sees another 25-40% downside risk for stocks including StarPower, Silan and Macmic. 1) Automotive IGBT price cuts - expects the global IGBT wafer supply/demand ratio to rise from 101% in 1H23 to 109%/137% in 2H23/1H24 and 131%/117% in 2H24/2H25. 2) Expects another 5-10% ASP erosion for commoditised power devices in 2H23 due to the aggressive power capacity expansion of Chinese tier 2/3 foundries. 3) PV IGBT price hikes are unsustainable - expects oversupply in 2H23 and an industry shift to SiC at a faster pace in 2024/25.