Technology

Report by JNK Research

The semiconductor distribution channel is posting ~40% Q/Q revenue growth in 1Q26, but the composition tells a more nuanced story than the headline suggests. JNK's supply chain checks show 800G optical module demand at a 2-year high, with all global Tier 1 makers pulling orders and Broadcom Tomahawk 6 extending the cycle into 2H26; simultaneously, the ASIC-to-GPU semi revenue mix is shifting from 80/20 towards 60-70/30-40, positioning MRVL as the most direct beneficiary. On the consumer side, Apple/iOS is outperforming seasonal patterns (+10% Q/Q vs. flat expected in Q4), though component buyers stocking ahead of tariff increases are raising H2 inventory correction flags. The divergence between data centre acceleration and consumer pull-in risk shapes the setup for H2.

Technology

Report by Behind the Numbers

Questionable quality of 4Q24 results - 1) Revenue had an extra six days but only rose by $8m or 0.6%. MRVL also picked up $13.7m from lower deferred revenues. 2) Ramped up Variable Considerations - a $10m change is worth 1 cent in EPS. Did MRVL load up this account to help sales and EPS going forward? 3) Accrued Warranty Expense fell - $26.9m potential boost in income or 3 cents in a quarter where MRVL only met estimates. 4) Adds back stock compensation - rose to 10.9% of sales - 2.6 cents to non-GAAP EPS. 5) Adjusted EPS also added back $42.3m in product claims that were paid out - 4.6 cents and is not expected to recur going forward. 6) Cuts to R&D spending.

Technology

Report by Lynx Equity Strategies

The must-have name in the AI space - KC Rajkumar sees MU rivalling AMD’s market cap in the next 12-18 months. As KC predicted, MU blew away investor expectations, not merely by beating and raising quarterly numbers, but by providing a qualitative outlook for revenue / margins into Cy24 and Cy25 - unimaginably impressive for what is supposed to be a cyclical business. Not even Nvidia has been able provide a two-year outlook. Agnostic to AI chip suppliers, and increasingly a pure-play in AI, renders MU more attractive, at this stage in the investment cycle, to the likes of NVDA, AMD, Broadcom and Marvell.

Technology

Report by Behind the Numbers

MRVL beats or misses forecasts by only 1-2 cents, but there appears to be several areas for concern: 1) Allowances for discounts and rebates are huge and driving +/- 7 cents of EPS per quarter. 2) Company adds 2.5 cents per quarter by boosting stock pay as a percentage of sales. 3) A new warranty charge appeared for first time last quarter. 4) AI growth is being swamped by weakness in other markets and inventory remains high. 5) It may not use all its contracted shipping and foundry capacity which hurts margins. 6) FCF is overstated because MRVL records technology licensing fees in the financing section of cash flow.

Technology

The party is just getting started - MRVL is the best semiconductor idea for 2022. While there are many great companies to choose from, MRVL stands out as the top semi supplier in terms of multi-year growth prospects. Since Matt Murphy took the reins the company has made several great acquisitions, pulled off the divesture of the decade (Wireless to NXP Semiconductors for $1.8bn), and is poised to take on Broadcom as the dominant communications semiconductor provider focused on the datacenter.