Utilities
My Big Fat Greek Deal - ResearchGreece downgrades their rating to DO NOT OWN IT (DOI) on the back of the €2bn/2GW solar agreement with Mytilineos. Why? Because the implied cost does not make sense; it is much higher than PPC’s own installations or projects under development; it is higher than any of the recent solar projects they have seen; PPC does not need it and it does not maximise shareholder value. While ResearchGreece’s valuation yields a fair value >€15 per share (+40% upside), their conviction is lower than before the deal. Investors that do not mind uneconomic corporate decisions may find such an upside attractive.
Greek Equities: Impressive gains YTD
ResearchGreece’s base case scenario is materialising - Mitsotakis administration renewing its mandate and Greece avoiding a recession. With Greek equities +c.35% YTD they provide an update on the investment case for all the stocks under their coverage including:
Jumbo (BELA GA) - Working for the right reasons, namely valuation, balance sheet, management, business model, growth and dividends. The biggest risk: EU-China geopolitical issues affecting the firm's 70% merchandise sourcing.
Mytilineos (MYTIL GA) - Rating seems wrong, but concerns seem right, namely cash flow generation, corporate governance, energy crisis gains, cyclicality and low visibility. TP €17 (50% downside).
Bank of Cyprus (BOCH CY) - The best bank in Greece / Cyprus, worth >1.0x TBV based on RoTE >17% in 2023 (and >13% in 2025) and CoE of 12%. The first bank in the region to resume dividend payments (>8% next year). TP €5.7 (90% upside).
