Materials

Report by Lucror Analytics

NIC released a strong activity report for 1Q25, with robust operational performance and solid earnings despite lower nickel prices. The deferral of scheduled payments for Excelsior Nickel Cobalt is also positive from a credit perspective. Lucror’s Credit Bias on NIC is "Stable", given the positive demand outlook for nickel pig iron. The company has a modest financial risk profile, with low leverage and adequate liquidity. That said, they are concerned about NIC's dependence on sole customer Tsingshan. They maintain their "Buy" recommendation on the NICAU 11.25 '28s at 100.6/11%/2.8Y. The notes have corrected from their peak of 109.6, given proposed changes to royalties and the ongoing tariff war. Lucror believes the correction has been overdone and that the bonds currently present attractive risk-adjusted value.

Report by Global Mining Research

After a good 2022, nickel prices are now feeling the pressure of rising Indonesian production and generally soft economic conditions. Although nickel equities don’t appear expensive for the long-term, shares are now fighting a headwind of lower prices and margins are compressed enough that several would be in difficultly should prices weaken another 10-20%. David Radclyffe’s views are mostly negative to neutral, his preferred nickel equities are IGO and Sherritt, while he has SELL ratings on Vale Indonesia, Norilsk Nickel and Nickel Industries.