Financials

Report by Badger Consultants

Tom Chanos trimmed his short ahead of earnings, covering 25% and locking in a 40% gain in 7 weeks. In his original thesis he argued HOOD was trading at ~50x 2026E adjusted EPS and ~30x sales on what he saw as peak cyclical earnings. Transaction revenue fell 44% from 2021-23, remains skewed to options and crypto, and faces regulatory risk around payment for order flow, while newer initiatives like credit cards and gold contribute only ~5% of revenue. Post-earnings, he highlights weak customer performance: including Jan losses, clients have made virtually no money since the start of the Meme Stock Era despite the S&P 500 nearly doubling, with AUM growth largely driven by net deposits. Tom remains very bearish, viewing any strength as an opportunity to rebuild the short, with a materially lower price target.

Report by 10x Research

Crypto stocks are unwinding sharply and some of the most hyped names are now down 30-50% from their highs. Markus Thielen says this isn’t just about short-term corrections - it’s about the deeper repricing of crypto’s equity narrative. Some names may still have room to fall, while others could be nearing high-conviction entry points. In June, Markus flagged that several crypto-related stocks were losing momentum, prompting his take-profit recommendation on Coinbase and warning that others could follow - notably Kakaopay, Metaplanet and Circle. Since then, the damage has been significant with all three names falling heavily. Valuations remain stretched - Circle still trades at a forward P/E of 153x, compared to 102x for Coinbase and 69x for Robinhood, leaving room for further downside. A 30% correction in Circle, or similarly in Kakaopay with its 128x P/E, would not be surprising.

Report by New Constructs

26 out of New Constructs’ 32 ideas outperformed in 1H22 with an average return of -50% compared to a 19% decline for the S&P 500. Underscoring just how important reliable fundamental research is in turbulent markets, their model portfolio has beaten the S&P by an even wider margin (48%) since the start of 2021. Top performers have been Coinbase, Carvana, Peloton, Snap, Beyond Meat and Lyft. As we enter 2H22 high conviction shorts include Netflix, Uber, Shopify and Robinhood.