Report by Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus argues that TikTok Shop (TTS)’s entry into Latin America is the largest e-commerce opportunity in developing countries for 2026. Video and live commerce penetration in LatAm remains <5% of GMV vs. 20-25% in SE Asia, despite larger GMV and strong TikTok engagement - creating a wide opening for disruption. TTS’s traffic advantage is expected to pressure incumbent margins, particularly MercadoLibre and Sea, while driving logistics upgrades. J&T Express emerges as a key beneficiary, with LatAm filling a growth gap as China and SE Asia slow. Blue Lotus also sees strategic upside for Kuaishou, partnership optionality for Grab and longer-term opportunities for Alibaba to reposition internationally.

Consumer Discretionary

Report by LightStream Research

Shares were up over 30% following a relatively small topline beat of 4.8% and a narrower than expected operating loss of $495.6m - Oshadhi Kumarasiri sees this as a great opportunity to make substantial gains on the short side in the near term as e-commerce and fintech remain unprofitable after cutting down necessary expenses such as logistics facilities and senior management cash compensation. Oshadhi estimates fair EV at ~$10bn (Gaming: $2bn, e-commerce: $5bn, Fintech: $3bn) vs. the current EV of $33.1bn, which implies 66% downside to Sea’s post-3Q22 price.