Report by Vermilion Research

The Vermilion team remain bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics continue to improve ever since the major bullish false breakdowns at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs and holding above bullish gaps from April 17. Everything that the team sees suggests bulls remain firmly in control, so the team want to be buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA. The team discussed adding exposure to growth, and primarily technology, as growth has taken over as leadership relative to value. RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and they are upgrading Technology to overweight. The team have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Ciena Corp, etc.) and memory (SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC, Micron Technology Inc) ever since last June, and these remain their favourite areas within Tech.

Technology

Report by Off Wall Street

OWS reiterates their short on STX with a $45 price target (80% downside), citing QLC flash displacing HDDs in data centres as the main catalyst for FY26 revenue and earnings misses. Despite in-line 2Q25 results and a muted 3Q25 outlook, the shares have risen >40% in 6 weeks. Bullish claims of sustainable HDD demand from AI are overstated, with consensus revenue forecasts largely unchanged and Y/Y pricing for mass capacity HDD’s trending downwards. Industry contacts confirm QLC NAND is steadily eroding HDD workloads, a shift that should accelerate with 3D NAND advances. Valuation has surged to unprecedented levels, insiders are selling and OWS sees optimism collapsing as cyclicality returns.

Technology

Report by Summit Insights Group

Kinngai Chan believes STX's HAMR technology HDD will drive further upside to its gross margin into 2H25. Industry checks indicate the current favourable pricing environment and product mix will continue. The company’s HAMR technology will not only allow it to increase its HDD capacity points but will also drive higher ASP and serve as a cost reduction for its mid-to-lower capacity HDDs. While Kinngai understands investor concerns about possible customer pull-ins and the future impact of tariffs on industry demand, he thinks any demand slowdown would be manageable for the storage market and STX. He expects STX will drive its corporate margin to the high-30% range as its HAMR-based HDD ramps through 2H25 and into 2026.

Report by Two Rivers Analytics

Atlantica Sustainable Infrastructure (AY) - Faces competition from new renewable energy companies and weaker than expected demand for electricity. Sales growth averages just above zero since 2017. EBITDA and FCF have declined since 2021. Trades at 34x 2024 earnings.
Olin (OLN) - Weakened demand in its core chlor-alkali business, increasing competition and higher raw materials prices. Sales declined for four quarters (incl. -35% drop last Qtr). While current year growth forecasts have been cut, out-year growth forecasts have been increased.
Seagate (STX) - The demand for hard drives has been declining as storage shifts onto the cloud. Sales have declined dramatically for five quarters. Margins have plummeted and leverage has shot up (when measured against collapsing EBITDA).

Report by 280First

280First's flagship product rapidly extracts actionable insights from financial filings through quantitative and qualitative inputs. Recent alerts include: 1) Casella Waste Systems - targeting larger, more strategic acquisitions which would require additional financing either in the form of debt or equity. 2) Halliburton - no longer focusing on increasing cash returns to shareholders. 3) Monolithic Power Systems - loss of customers and less bullish on margins. 4) Prestige Consumer Healthcare - worries around demand elasticity and market share. 5) Seagate Technology - large hyperscale DC customer concerns.