Report by MYST Advisors

Given the sharp shift toward macro dynamics, MYST hosted a generalist idea event to identify companies that have been overly penalised amid the recent downturn. All but one of the participants felt the market may hit new lows (S&P 500 ~4,500) as consensus earnings estimates are likely too high. While most of the stocks presented were not far from their 52-week (or much longer) lows, participants highlighted companies with underappreciated earnings resilience (Byrna Technologies, CCC Intelligent Solutions, Six Flags, IMAX, Nvidia) and businesses misperceived as Trump tariff / DOGE losers (Aptiv, KBR, SharkNinja). However, the stock offering the biggest upside (100%+) was Chart Industries (LNG export policy beneficiary with rising recurring revenue / improving leverage profile).

Report by Valens Research

Valens conducts deep fundamental work to identify investment themes that could underperform the broader market, and leverages proprietary tools including an adjusted accounting database, Embedded Expectations Analysis, and Earnings Call Forensics, among others, to identify which names are at risk for material downside. Over the past year, their Thematic Short Idea List has declined by 18%, while the broader market has only declined by c.6%, showcasing how owning these names in a long portfolio could lead to significantly poorer results. Recent shorts include Snap (-81% since inception), Six Flags (-42%), and Cognex (-41%).

Report by Unit Economics

Since inception (31st Dec 2020) Nathan Weiss’ model portfolio has generated an impressive +25.09% total return (vs. +11.12% for S&P 500). He is currently 38.3% net long the energy sector (incl. Kayne Anderson Energy Infrastructure, ChampionX, Energy Transfer LP); 17.1% net long ‘re-opening’ names (incl. Dave & Buster’s, Six Flags) and 29.6% short ‘stay at home enablers’ (incl. Stitch Fix, ARK Next Generation Internet, Etsy, Wayfair). He recently increased his short position in DoorDash - sees >50% downside in a matter of months.