Consumer Staples
GHRA’s Proprietary Quarterly Store Manager Survey reinforces improving operational momentum, aligning with their traffic data and field checks that point to tangible progress in restoring merchandising authority through a refreshed assortment. This supports GHRA's optimistic outlook for TGT first outlined in their Jan 26 upgrade. Survey results show a notable sequential improvement: 29% of managers report sales tracking above plan (vs. 11% in 4Q25), while 31% cite stronger traffic (vs. 9%). Seasonal performance was particularly robust, with 46% indicating better-than-expected trends (vs. 9%), alongside a meaningful pickup in discretionary demand, suggesting recent brand partnerships are resonating. However, promotional intensity has increased, with 60% flagging higher markdown activity. While inflation concerns among customers edged up, sentiment appears to be stabilising.
Europe: Uncontrollable hiccups
Niall Ferguson expects euro area headline inflation, measured by the harmonised index of consumer prices, to peak near 3.5% in late 2026 or early 2027 and to return to 2% in 2H2027. This is a higher peak than consensus and a longer return to target than in the European Central Bank’s adverse scenario. The return to 2% inflation was never sustainable. Imported disinflation from Chinese manufactured goods had been masking broad but shallow inflation in domestic services, and the current shock now arrives with no disinflationary buffer. Accordingly, Niall expects the ECB to hike rates by 50 bps by year-end. His views on US and EU rates and inflation translate to a minimally stronger euro than the market is pricing; Niall sees the EURUSD spot price at 1.178 and the one-year forward at 1.193. Europe’s second inflation shock in four years will prove less acute than the first but harder to shake.
Gold and silver entering a new phase
In his latest presentation, Jeffrey Christian of CPM Group discusses the recent movements in gold, silver, platinum, and palladium prices, focusing on the sharp decline in gold and silver and the consolidation pattern developing across precious metals markets. He explains why, despite the recent drop, prices remain within the range that CPM Group has been outlining, and why the current environment continues to point toward a period of sideways, volatile trading rather than a sustained breakout. Jeff discusses how seasonal trends, macroeconomic conditions, and investment demand are interacting to shape price behaviour over the coming months. He discusses the growing likelihood of a consolidation phase through the summer, while noting how economic and political developments could still cause short-term price fluctuations.
Click here to watch.
Copper: Lack of supply growth vs rising inventories
David Radclyffe's copper coverage totals ~63% of global mine production. Copper supply continues to wrestle with many legacy headaches from 2025, mixed with the Iran conflict and its implications for diesel and sulphuric acid supply. There is therefore downside supply risk. However, the current oil disruption has implications for global growth and copper demand. Worryingly, David points out that copper inventories are rising rapidly. His coverage universe implies 0.9% annual contraction in refined copper supply in 2026, following a strong 2025. Weak supply growth for 2026, even with moderate demand growth, is at odds with strongly rising terminal market inventories, now at 1,267kt, adding to price risk. Copper is a crowded long trade, with caution warranted. The sector is not particularly cheap at spot 1.6x P/NPV10 and 9x EV/EBITDA. Antofagasta PLC is cut to HOLD. Preferred stocks include Lundin Mining Corp, KGHM Polska Miedz SA, Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, Grupo Mexico SAB de CV, Hudbay Minerals Inc and Teck Resources Ltd.
US: Going overweight on tech
The Vermilion team remain bullish on the S&P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM). Market dynamics continue to improve ever since the major bullish false breakdowns at 6480-6520 on the SPX, 24,000 on Nasdaq futures (NQ), and $245 on the IWM, with all of them now breaking out to all-time highs and holding above bullish gaps from April 17. Everything that the team sees suggests bulls remain firmly in control, so the team want to be buying any pullbacks for the foreseeable future to the 20-day MA or 21-day EMA. The team discussed adding exposure to growth, and primarily technology, as growth has taken over as leadership relative to value. RS on the cap-weighted XLK is now breaking above its 2025 highs and they are upgrading Technology to overweight. The team have remained overweight semiconductors (SMH, NVIDIA Corp, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd, Ciena Corp, etc.) and memory (SanDisk Corp, Western Digital Corp, Seagate Technology Holdings PLC, Micron Technology Inc) ever since last June, and these remain their favourite areas within Tech.
US: Warsh ready for prime time at the Fed
Based in part on his previous interactions with Kevin Warsh, the prospective next Fed Chairman, John Ryding discusses what he is likely to do when he takes over on 15th May. John says that Kevin understands complex economic arguments but is not wedded to conventional academic wisdom. Kevin hates inflation and firmly believes that it is a monetary phenomenon and that the Fed must take responsibility for it. Although Kevin feared at one point that the Fed might raise its inflation target to 3%, he seemed adamantly opposed to the idea. Kevin brings a great depth of institutional market knowledge to the Fed, which it desperately needs, and is willing to think outside the box. In his prepared statement to the Senate Banking Committee, Kevin made it clear that he believes “monetary policy independence is essential. Monetary policymakers must act in the nation’s interest . . . their decisions the product of analytic rigour, meaningful deliberation, and unclouded decision-making.”
Financials
Anas Abuzaakouk (CEO since Aug 2017, joined 2012) bought 30,000 shares at €149, spending €4.5m. He has a great track record based on his 21 prior purchases. This is his single largest purchase and the highest price he has paid. He last bought in Oct 2025 at €108. Smart Insider has ranked the stock several times based on his prior activity, with the majority of those signals proving to be very timely. They are ranking the stock +1 (highest rating).
Materials
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is driving dislocation in ammonia and sulphur markets. AECI is well positioned, sourcing ~85% of ammonia from Sasol’s Secunda plant and avoiding import exposure, while ~50% of global sulphur trade typically transits the Strait. Resulting shortages have triggered sharp price spikes, with AECI monetising existing inventory. Its sulphuric acid business (~R600m revenue, HSD margins) should see a near-term earnings boost (for approx. a quarter based on current conditions). Operations have also improved following stabilisation at Modderfontein. With peer Omnia sourcing ~50% of its ammonia requirements from imports, AECI is better positioned. Chronux expects EBITDA to reach ~R4.5bn by FY27 and increases their HEPS by 10.7% (FY26) and 3.8% (FY27). TP increased to R132 (from R125).
Technology
QCOM’s guidance came in weak, but visibility into the end of the handset correction is improving, with orders expected to normalise from Q4. More importantly, confirmation of a hyperscaler data centre win provides tangible evidence that diversification is gaining traction, alongside strong automotive momentum. If the market is finally prepared to look beyond Apple-related risk, then the shares have a lot further to go. QCOM remains one of the few semiconductor names with credible AI exposure that has yet to see a meaningful re-rating, while consensus expectations - currently implying no EPS growth in 2027 - is clearly too low.
Industrials
Robert Crimes highlights GET as a unique long-duration infrastructure asset with a potential takeout emerging. Eiffage and Mundys will likely soon own ~59.8% of the company, having recently added to their positions. Insight’s buyout scenario IRR is 14.7% (at 25% share price premium of €24/share), +410bps above their deal Ke of 10.6%. While shuttle traffic remains pressured by excess ferry capacity, this has been offset by higher pricing, supporting continued revenue growth. The underlying appeal is the asset’s durable cash generation, with ~€710m recurring FCF (~6.9% yield) and long-term growth driven by pricing, traffic recovery and new high-speed rail routes.
Innolight: AI optics leader targets H-Share listing
Technology
Aequitas offers an early look at Innolight as it aims to raise ~$5bn in an H-share listing (up from ~$3bn in late 2025), potentially making it one of Hong Kong’s largest deals this year. The company is the global leader in optical transceivers and is benefiting from strong demand driven by AI-related data centre capex. Growth has been exceptional, with revenue up 122% in 2024, 61% in 2025 and a further 192% YoY in 1Q26, alongside margin expansion. With revenue heavily concentrated among hyperscalers and shares already trading at elevated multiples (~37x FY26 P/E), the key question for investors is how much of this growth is already priced in.
Technology
The group’s year-end update more than confirmed the optimism management showed at the interims. Revenues will be ahead of consensus, with double digit growth and record backlogs. Confidence is also evident in a 21% increase in headcount, albeit with some margin pressure from contractor usage. Consensus revenue forecasts have been upgraded, though EBIT has edged slightly lower. The balance sheet remains a clear strength with £160m of net cash and potential for ~£70m of Y2 FCF. While analysts appear to be recognising the revenue inflection, the implied to Y3 EBITM ratio here is now 40. That is very low for the growth on offer, with Willis Welby arguing the shares could easily rise 50% from current levels.
Industrials
Hamed Khorsand highlights Azul as a post-restructuring opportunity following its emergence from Chapter 11 bankruptcy, which materially reset its capital structure and reduced net leverage to ~2.3x EBITDA. The company eliminated ~$2.5bn of debt and lease obligations, cut interest costs by >50% and is now positioned to generate sustainable FCF. Despite this, the stock trades at ~3.9x 2026 EV/EBITDA, a significant discount to regional peers. The key catalyst is a planned NYSE listing, which should broaden investor awareness and drive a rerating. With a differentiated domestic network and improving profitability, Hamed sees ~70% upside to his (12-month) TP of R$50.
Industrials
Misumi appears to be at the early stages of a meaningful re-rating, as it begins to demonstrate the success of its transition from a domestic parts catalogue company to a global digital manufacturing platform provider. Over recent years, this previously highly regarded “growth” name has derated from trading at 25-40x to 15-20x, but has quietly transformed itself and now boasts a unique combination of software, hardware and logistics, which should support a re-acceleration in earnings. At the same time, there is increasing scope for enhanced shareholder returns as management optimises its cash-rich balance sheet.
Technology
The market is misdiagnosing structural share loss as a temporary slowdown. OWS’s industry checks suggest enterprise weakness is driven by competition from Microsoft Teams and Zoom, while a lack of innovation is reflected in Gartner’s Magic Quadrant rankings. Management’s expectations for high growth from AI and RingCX products appear optimistic, with feedback indicating these offerings are largely undifferentiated. At the same time, aggressive cost cuts in R&D and sales are cited as contributing to customer dissatisfaction and weaker retention. With RPOs (backlog) flat for nearly two years and FCF overstated (adjusting for buybacks reduces 2025 FCF to $196m from $530m and the FCF yield was 5.6% rather than the 15% bulls use to argue that RNG is a cheap stock), OWS sees continued pressure on growth and valuation.
Technology
JNK’s analysis suggests LSCC is tracking ahead of guidance, with Q1 supported by strong bookings extending into 1H27 and a book-to-bill above 1.2. However, this strength is partly driven by Greater China customers pulling forward demand ahead of a ~15% price increase implemented in March 2026, with regional shipments running ~25% above Q4 levels. Lead times remain elevated at over 26 weeks, constrained by substrate and packaging rather than wafer capacity. With servers accounting for ~60% of revenue and exposure to Intel and AMD platforms, the company also benefits indirectly from AI-related demand. JNK's analysis suggests pricing can support growth even if volumes soften.
Materials
GMR cuts FCX to Sell following further production downgrades at Grasberg, with the ongoing impact of the 2025 “Mud Rush” now expected to persist through 2027. They estimate cumulative production losses of 952kt of copper, 1.5Moz of gold and 6.6Moz silver over 2025-2029, equating to $19.2bn of lost revenue at spot prices (or $15.4bn on GMR’s base case price forecasts). GMR has cut 2026/27 EBITDA forecasts by 15-21% and reduced its valuation by 27%, arguing the recent share price reaction underestimates the severity and duration of the impact. With risks of further downgrades and rising capex, downside remains.
Industrials
Investors should own the stock ahead of what Craig Huber believes will be a robust US residential market recovery leading to an estimated 25% pick-up in mortgage inquires in 2027 and a further 20% jump in 2028. He also continues to argue that investor AI fears related to EFX and the information services stocks, in general, that he covers are completely irrational. With ~90% of revenue derived from proprietary data and significant regulatory barriers, AI is a net positive. Craig’s new 2026/27 adjusted EPS estimates are a Street-high of $8.79/$11.35 vs. consensus of $8.59/$10.28, with a 12-month TP of $224 (30% upside).
Drone related investment ideas
Red Cat (RCAT US) - expected to disappoint on its recent and highly speculative marine drone division; management has credibility issues from previously missing on guidance; and the company has yet to be included in the Department of War’s Drone Dominance Program.
Motorola Solutions (MSI US) - has been a dominant name in critical communications equipment for fire, police and government for decades. The long thesis now is based on the company's “transformational” acquisition of Silvus Technologies, a tactical drone networking business.
Fujikura (5803 JP) - tremendous scaling opportunity for selling co-packaged optical connectors for AI data centres, alongside expanding demand for fibre optics in drones - which is poised to become one of the fastest-growing segments within fibre optics - from military kamikaze and loitering munitions to commercial inspection drones, delivery systems and advanced surveying platforms.
Canadian Lifecos: Private credit risk under scrutiny
Financials
Roshan Paunikar’s analysis highlights rising scrutiny around private credit exposure within Canadian lifecos, with risks centred on below-investment-grade assets, valuation opacity and broader fixed-income sensitivity. While portfolios remain skewed towards higher-quality credit, companies are not insulated from a weaker environment, with potential impacts including higher credit losses, fair value marks and pressure on regulatory capital. Manulife Financial appears most exposed driven by a higher proportion of below-investment-grade private credit and a relatively riskier fixed-income portfolio, while Sun Life Financial appears most negatively exposed to wider credit spreads. Great-West Lifeco appears to have the most conservative investment portfolio among peers.
Financials
MRX is a beneficiary of geopolitical instability, particularly in commodity markets, where it is a leading player. The shares have pulled back from recent highs but are only ~12% above the 2025 peak, despite 1Q26 profits likely to rise c.50% Y/Y - implying meaningful multiple compression. Fighting Financials sees scope for this to reverse as volatility persists. Consensus Q1 PBT forecasts sit c.13-14% below management’s end of March guidance, while FY26 consensus implies flat Y/Y performance for the remaining quarters, which is clearly inconsistent with the current earnings trajectory. With the potential to return >60% of its m/cap via dividends and buybacks over the next 5 years, MRX stands out as one of the cheapest, high-quality financials in their investment universe and is one of the few compelling long ideas in a market, where opportunities are largely on the short side.
Consumer Discretionary
Paragon’s executive diligence memo was originally published when Heidi O’Neill was being discussed as a potential CEO successor at Nike and they viewed her as a poor fit for that role. At LULU, she is somewhat better matched to the brief, but their core reservations remain. She has tended to look stronger as an operator and internal brand steward than as a true strategic architect. That matters at LULU, where the challenge requires a sharper product vision, stronger innovation instincts and a willingness to make harder calls on strategy and talent. So, while the fit is better than it would have been at NKE, Paragon still views her as more of a stabiliser than an obvious answer to LULU’s deeper issues.
Healthcare
Following publication of the company's FY25 annual report, Iron Blue increases their CTEC score to 29/60 (newly top decile). They see upside risk to the group’s future D&A expense given FY25 PPE/RoU capex exceeded depreciation by a 10-year high 33% of PBT adj and balance sheet intangible assets under construction (historically mainly software) almost trebled Y/Y. Risks in CTEC’s debtor book may be emerging with year-end debtors overdue by >90 days but not impaired increasing to $31m from $8m despite FY25’s rise in provisioning expense. Inventory impairment provisioning remained compressed and CTEC continued its trend of stripping out restructuring and other costs. FY25’s trade payables spiked higher, bringing risk of mean reversion. They also note that both the CEO and CFO were internal appointments.
Healthcare
The market is overly focused on a perceived peak in TIDES-driven growth. While the 100,000-litre ramp in 2026 supports ~RMB 20bn of visible revenue, a multi-year growth stack extends beyond this, with ASO, cyclic peptides and RNAi contributing through 2029. The underappreciated angle lies in small molecule D&M, where management guides to 15%+ growth but scepticism persists following weaker 2025 delivery. Horizon Insights sees upside from commercialisation orders, overseas formulation expansion and TIDES precursor demand. If this segment outperforms, valuation upside is substantial (2H26 order disclosures will be a key catalyst). With CDMO utilisation improving and sector demand recovering, the company is well positioned for a rerating as growth re-accelerates beyond TIDES.
Pair trade off the same catalyst: Long PVH; Short GIII
Consumer Discretionary
Brian McGough sees a compelling long/short opportunity, driven by a structural transfer of economics as PVH reclaims key licenses. PVH represents ~40% of GIII revenue but closer to ~60% of cash flow, implying a sharp earnings reset as contracts roll off through 2027. Brian expects GIII EBITDA to fall from ~$325m to sub-$150m, with equity risk skewed towards mid-single digits. Conversely, PVH could see EPS power inflect from ~$11 to $15+ as higher-margin revenue is internalised, supporting a rerating from ~5x to ~10x EBITDA and a potential $200 stock. With near-term earnings distorted by transition dynamics (GIII cutting costs to mask deterioration while PVH absorbs upfront investment), the setup offers alpha on both sides of the trade.
Communications
The competitive landscape is intensifying and the existential risk for IRDM is getting bigger, according to Hamed Khorsand. The direct-to-device market is attracting well-capitalised entrants, with Amazon’s acquisition of Globalstar and Starlink’s expansion significantly increasing capacity and bandwidth relative to IRDM’s legacy network. At the same time, a proposed FCC rule could erode the exclusivity of IRDM’s spectrum, undermining a key pillar of its valuation. Customer behaviour is also shifting, with evidence of dual-sourcing and pricing pressure. While positive FCF has supported the equity story, Hamed expects rising investment needs to weigh on future generation. The recent advance in IRDM's stock makes it a good place to short/sell shares.
Copper: Moving away from a 19-year ceiling
Spot Copper (USD5.87) is finally moving away from a 19-year Ceiling that extends from USS4.00-5.00. The minimum long-term target is USD8.00-10.00. A multi-year ceiling is rarely broken easily but copper has been fighting for 4.5 years, and Chris Roberts comments that after a number of attempts it looks to have succeeded. The encouraging development since the 2022 low has been the series of higher lows. If Chris’s view is correct, going forward investors should expect a cleaner trending market with less volatility. The weekly chart features a 4-year Ascending Triangle, which is viewed as the launching pattern for the move away from the 19-year Ceiling at USD4.00-5.00 to USD8.00-10.00+. Go 20% long at market. Add 10% at USD5.8220, 10% at 5.7720 and 10% at 5.7220. The recommended stop is a daily close below USD5.2170.
US: Underlying inflation trends are cooling
Report by
Ironsides Macroeconomics
Barry Knapp argues that recent geopolitical shocks—particularly the Iran conflict—have not meaningfully altered the medium term economic or inflation outlook. By focusing on stated policy objectives rather than speculative geopolitical outcomes, Barry concludes that escalation risk remains limited and that markets largely share this view. Inflation expectations normalised quickly, equity markets avoided a sustained dislocation and the anticipated “fat pitch” equity market overreaction never materialised. Inflation remains the central macro issue, but underlying trends are cooling. March CPI was elevated due to an energy price spike, yet the key components - core goods, rent of shelter, and non housing services - continue to moderate. Barry stresses that post pandemic seasonal adjustment distortions are overstating inflation pressure and risk repeating policy mistakes made after the Global Financial Crisis. He views the Fed’s rigid 2% inflation target as poorly conceived and expects trend inflation to settle nearer 2.5% over time.
Consumer Discretionary
Scott Mushkin upgrades the stock to Buy, arguing the market underestimates the potential to turn around Foot Locker. Proprietary channel checks, including recent visits to “Fast Break” remodelled stores, point to materially improved traffic, ticket and margins, with early comps potentially reaching double digits. Crucially, the rollout appears extremely capital-light, supporting rapid scaling, with c.250 remodels planned by summer. Management confidence is rising, with fewer store closures than previously expected. Further upside could come from scaling clearance via the Going, Going, Gone! format, rolling out of sports trading cards within House of Sport and margin improvement through expanding private label apparel brands as well as DICK’S Media Network to the FL chain.
Industrials
2Xideas latest deep-dive focuses on APG - a high-quality compounder, supported by market leadership and durable advantages in a regulation‑driven, non‑discretionary end market. Demand for fire protection inspection and maintenance is underpinned by stringent compliance requirements, while low customer cost supports pricing resilience. The group differentiates through national scale, premium service and investment in skilled labour. With significant consolidation runway and a proven M&A playbook, APG is well‑positioned for sustained DD earnings growth. 2Xideas forecasts revenue growth of 7.4% p.a. (2025-2032E), adjusted EBITDA margins rising from 13.2% to 17.9% and cumulative FCF of $7.8bn (~45% of m/cap). Applying a 20x exit NTM P/E 2032E, they estimate total shareholder returns of 12.9% p.a. over this period.
Airline mega-merger? More signal than reality
Industrials
Reno Bianchi provides his take on reports that United Airlines' CEO Scott Kirby has floated a potential merger with American Airlines, though any transaction remains highly speculative. The logic is clear given American’s very precarious financial situation, but regulatory hurdles appear prohibitive, with the combined entity controlling ~40% of domestic capacity and likely requiring extensive asset divestitures. The more relevant takeaway is strategic: such signalling may reflect the DOT's recent openness to further airline consolidation, or serve as a tactic to frame smaller, more achievable transactions as less contentious by comparison.
Technology
GR20 views NEM's acquisition of HCSS as a strategically and financially well-structured transaction that strengthens its exposure to faster-growing, under-digitised infrastructure markets. The deal expands the group’s Build & Construct segment, increasing its addressable market and rebalancing revenue away from the more mature Design business. Crucially, the use of a 28% minority stake held by Thoma Bravo limits upfront cash outlay and preserves balance sheet flexibility, while reflecting ongoing challenges in private equity exits. The combination offers meaningful upside through cross-selling, cost synergies and AI-driven product enhancements, although EPS accretion is only expected from 2028. With valuation multiples now compressed following share price weakness, GR20 sees an attractive entry point.
Technology
The recent AI-driven sell-off has pushed this small-cap ERP systems provider to ~14x FY27 PER, despite strong earnings growth, creating an attractive entry point. The company serves small- to mid-sized domestic manufacturers, a segment with lower enterprise software penetration, lagging larger peers in digital adoption. Concerns around AI disintermediation appear misplaced as this ERP software is complex and trying a DIY approach for these type of companies with limited IT resource isn't worth it, whilst Business Engineering's key value-add is consulting and implementation, so ability to write code is only part of the mix.
Aegea: From accounting shock to credit opportunity
Utilities
Lucror upgrades Aegea to Buy, arguing the recent accounting restatement marks a turning point rather than a deterioration in fundamentals. While revisions increased net leverage by 0.5x, they were non-cash in nature, with no impact on liquidity, covenant compliance or cash generation. Crucially, the outcome removes uncertainty around the scale of the adjustment, with the company retaining strong funding visibility and no near-term refinancing risk. Lucror sees value across the AEGEBZ curve, preferring the ’29s (87.7 / 11.6% / 2.6Y) and ’31s (90.3 / 11.7% / 3.6Y). A potential IPO in 2027 reinforces incentives to delever and restore credibility, supporting bondholders despite ongoing governance scrutiny.
Memory earnings power has shifted structurally. Valuations haven’t
Technology
The memory cycle is being misread as cyclical rather than structural, with no near-term earnings peak as AI drives sustained demand. Capacity cannibalisation from HBM and SOCAMM is expected to constrain DRAM supply into 2028, with NAND also remaining tight, while LTAs could see future output effectively prepaid - reducing downside risk and reinforcing earnings durability. Yet valuations remain anchored to legacy frameworks, underestimating pricing power and cash generation, with net cash potentially >50% of m/cap by FY27 for players like SK Hynix and Kioxia. Within memory, Arete sees NAND fundamentals as more compelling than DRAM in the near term. They also upgrade Samsung to Buy, with a continued beat-and-raise cycle expected in coming quarters.
China sulfuric acid export curbs: A tightening noose on TiO₂ supply
Materials
Sulfuric acid is becoming a binding constraint for TiO₂, with potential Chinese export curbs reinforcing an already tightening market. Acid prices have doubled y/y to ~$280/t, with recent moves of ~$140/t in 2026 alone, driving a ~$400/t increase in cash costs for sulfate-route producers - pushing marginal Chinese capacity into loss-making territory. With ~80-85% of China’s TiO₂ output reliant on sulfate processing, the system is highly exposed, meaning acid shortages translate directly into lost production rather than margin compression from the market’s key swing supplier. As acid is increasingly diverted towards fertilisers and battery materials, TiO₂ is pushed into a residual demand bucket - implying lower operating rates, periodic shutdowns and reduced export availability. With demand relatively inelastic in the near term, the setup is a classic supply shock, supporting sustained pricing upside and favouring chloride producers such as Chemours and Tronox.
The best 3 space exploration stocks to buy in 2026
Technology
The space economy is a major structural growth theme, expected to expand from ~$614bn in 2024 to >$1.8tn over the next decade, with opportunities extending beyond rockets into the broader infrastructure stack. MAPsignals’ edge lies in identifying institutional inflows before the narrative becomes consensus, using its “Big Money” framework to find winners early. For example, Teradyne was flagged at ~$90 last June and has since surged to ~$342 on sustained inflows, with further upside anticipated. Applying the same process, they also highlight Carpenter Technology and Palantir as beneficiaries of the space buildout, supported by persistent institutional buying - including “non-stop” inflows into Carpenter. Tomorrow’s leaders are found by following the flows, not the headlines.
AI: Compute scarcity & rise of infrastructure pricing power
Technology
Sean Maher argues the AI narrative is entering a critical second phase: compute scarcity is driving a structural repricing of tokens, with profound implications across the value chain. While semiconductors have captured ~80% of AI profits to date, tightening constraints in power, memory and optical networking are shifting pricing power towards infrastructure providers. Hyperscalers such as Amazon may be underappreciated beneficiaries as token demand from agentic AI explodes and supply struggles to keep pace. Meanwhile, Sean highlights early-cycle opportunities in analog and power semiconductors, where cyclical recovery is aligning with structural AI tailwinds. With proprietary Taiwan supply chain tracking and a strong record in identifying inflection points, Sean continues to uncover differentiated signals ahead of consensus.
Industrials
Grid constraints threaten to slow data centre construction growth, potentially disrupting STRL’s key revenue growth and margin expansion engine. Early signs are already visible, with decelerating construction data, softer backlog and margin pressure in its core E-Infrastructure segment. The CEC acquisition is a desperate move by management to mask a plateau in its site prep business and expand into Texas ahead of increasing competition. With cash flow moderating (and diverging meaningfully from adjusted earnings), insider selling rising and valuation elevated (~22x EV/EBITDA), OWS is targeting more than 30% downside.
US LNG: Qatar changes everything
Energy
Global LNG markets had been bracing for a wave of new supply led by Qatar, but that assumption is now in question. Qatar isn’t adding 32 MTPA - it’s effectively losing 12, tightening supply from a key swing supplier. More importantly, the disruption shifts the market from a cost-driven framework to one increasingly defined by security of supply. Reliability, not price, is becoming the dominant variable in long-term contracting. This reinforces the case for energy diversification and challenges expectations of a rapid decline in coal demand. The real beneficiaries are US LNG exporters, which gain pricing power, contract optionality and greater exposure to spot markets, with US capacity effectively de-risked. While market attention remains focused on oil, the more durable opportunity lies in a structural bull case for US LNG infrastructure. Highlighted names include Cheniere, Venture Global and NextDecade.
Consumer Discretionary
Tapestry has been on a roll, driven by Coach’s use of technology, customer insight and strong design team, but momentum now appears past its peak “buzz”. While Kate Spade is beginning to show signs of life, The Retail Tracker would avoid the name at current levels - with the stock up ~135% over the past year and +16% YTD, it looks fully valued at ~22x earnings. Investors could instead own LVMH or Moncler at similar valuations, or Capri Holdings as a turnaround. For aspirational exposure, The RealReal and Lululemon are seen as more compelling.
Materials
GMR upgraded KGH to Buy, following the recent pullback, arguing the stock offers a cheaper, lower-risk way to gain silver exposure. KGH is a much larger silver producer than often appreciated, with silver contributing ~26% of 2026 revenues (rising to ~32% at higher prices), supported by stable production and assets in low-risk jurisdictions. GMR forecasts earnings to rise ~70% Y/Y, with a base case of $79/oz silver in 2026, falling to $52 and $47 thereafter. The stock trades on ~7.7x 2026 P/E and ~4.4x EV/EBITDA (vs. ~7-8x for peers), with ~6.3% FCF yield. Valuation becomes increasingly compelling above $60-70/oz silver. Additional support comes from net debt trending to zero by 2028 and declining royalty charges.
Industrials
The stock was pitched as a long idea at MYST’s latest Industrials Idea Forum, with prior events generating +11.4%, +10.4% and +9.5% average alpha. The presenter argued ENR’s recent underperformance vs. GE Vernova reflects macro-related fears among European investors, not fundamentals, leaving a valuation gap set to close. Multiple catalysts were highlighted, including “super cycles” in Gas Services and Grid Technologies and a profitability inflection in Siemens Gamesa expected in 3Q26. Street estimates are too low, with additional upside from potential changes to the Siemens AG trademark licensing fee and an end to the war in Ukraine. With strong backlog visibility and a clean balance sheet, the presenter has a TP of €225, offering 35% upside.
Consumer Staples
Following publication of its FY25 annual report Iron Blue lifts their RKT score +2pts to 28/60 (top quartile / fertile grounds for shorting). This reflects 1) 7-year high stripped out restructuring charge; 2) another spike lower in balance sheet trade spend accruals; 3) reduced inventory and bad debtor impairment provisions; 4) various additional risks related to NEC litigation, HS compensation changes and UK Suboxone civil proceedings within RKT’s contingent liabilities disclosures; 5) another increase in KPMG’s non-audit fees; and 6) the 14% discretionary upward adjustment to the CEO’s annual bonus to reflect strong share price performance (which compares with shares -14% FY26 YTD).
China Industrials: Two high-conviction ideas with global demand drivers
Industrials
Ninebot (689009 CH) - Revenue +50% in 2025, electric two-wheeler profit +62%. The lawnmower robot business grew +124% and is structurally positioned to benefit from EU policy-driven industry consolidation. Dual-brand strategy (Ninebot + Segway) targeting 20% market share. This is a Chinese industrial with genuine European distribution infrastructure - a rare combination given current geopolitical sensitivities around China supply chains.
Orient Cable (603606 CH) - RMB 19.3bn order book, 60% in high-value submarine and high-voltage cable. Delivered UK Inchcape project ahead of schedule. China offshore wind accelerating to 12GW+ in 2026, European energy independence driving parallel demand and high-margin export cable mix rising. The 15th Five-Year Plan implies installed capacity doubling vs. the 14th. Order visibility is as clean as it gets in Chinese industrials.
The mispriced escalation risk
Markets have transitioned into a new, high-volatility regime where prolonged conflict is now the base case. The Oil Volatility index (OVC) has surged toward 120, in line with Ron William’s projected target, reflecting crisis-level conditions and implying ~35% monthly price swings (see chart). Ron sees the possibility of prices heading to $200/barrel as markets transition from localised disruption to broader macro dislocation, a possibility that historical precedent presents as highly plausible. This reflects a larger, geopolitically driven cycle instead of a short-term spike, and the dynamic is unfolding within a broader commodity super-cycle framework: gold leads during monetary stress, copper confirms late-cycle growth pressure, and Energy ETF (XLE) is already up +35% YTD in line with Ron’s tactical call. The current environment increasingly resembles a 1970s-style regime of rolling inflation waves, with stagflation risks re-emerging.
Mining equities in turbulent markets
The US-Israeli war with Iran and oil shock has resulted in some of the most volatile markets of recent times. Higher oil prices are clearly inflationary; however, the larger short-term risk for the miners is arguably the supply of liquid fuel. Slowing global growth could erode copper demand; the copper sector P/NPV10 and +1 year P/CF is trading close to previous tough levels with a spot FCF yield of 5.2% being attractive. Gold equities are still attractive with the market imputing lower spot prices today. The shares are cheap on a cash flow basis with a 6.9% spot FCF yield. Gold sector margins are still robust with better balance sheets compared to peers. Copper and gold equities have corrected, and value opportunities have emerged. Preferred coppers are Antofagasta PLC, Lundin Mining Corp and Ivanhoe Mines Ltd, whilst least preferred are First Quantum Minerals Ltd and Southern Copper Corp. Preferred golds are Barrick Gold Corp, Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd and Kinross Gold Corp.
Iran: What lies ahead
Every time Trump pushes back the deadline for reaching an agreement with Iran, the credibility of his threat wanes and Brunello Rosa sees little reason as to why the Iranians would now feel compelled to give ground. There is a deeper issue: Iran does not trust Trump. The only strategy may be for Iran to impose enough pain by prolonging the conflict until the US and its allies feel the pain, which could send oil prices soaring toward $200/barrel. Brunello explores the scenarios that lie ahead should Washington target Kharg Island. One sees Tehran being toppled, but at an extraordinary cost of hundreds of thousands of troops and trillions of dollars. The second scenario is worse, one that involves a prolonged war of attrition mirroring that of Vietnam. Brunello sees the third possibility of the US achieving its objectives in a matter of months as unrealistic.
UK equity market briefing
As a direct result of higher petrol prices, CPI inflation is likely to increase to around 3.25% in March. Darren Winder explains that this needs to be balanced against the impact of base effects and the reduction in the energy price cap. Overall, his arithmetic shows inflation dipping below 3% in April. If maintained at recent levels, sharply higher wholesale gas prices are likely to result in the energy price cap rising by around 20% over July-September. Without policy interventions (which are likely), this would add ~0.5% to CPI and contribute to higher government debt interest payments. On his current arithmetic, CPI averages around 3.25% in 2026. As energy price pressures subside, CPI will fall towards the 2% target during 2027. This allows policy interest rates to resume a downward path. The jump in market interest rate expectations, to well over 4%, will, in Darren’s view, prove to be relatively short-lived as Bank Rate is maintained at 3.75%.
Shorts continue to deliver strong alpha
Vision initiated 5 new shorts and closed 9 in Q1. Regarding the closed shorts, alpha ranged from 46% on the high end with AAK, to 6% on the low end for Assa Abloy. Other closed shorts included Fluidra, KION Group, Dorman Products, Planet Fitness, Pop Mart, Smoore International and Techtronic Industries. Consistent with Vision’s pursuit of liquid and non-consensus ideas, the 5 new shorts in Q1 had median average daily $ volume of >$150m and median short interest % of free float of 2.5%. Their new shorts include European luxury, European telco, European cap good, US restaurant and US healthcare.
