Consumer Discretionary

Report by CHA-AM Advisors

Past the worse - David Scott first recommended the stock back in 2017, highlighting THULE's global leadership and as a great play on the new leisure age / ageing demographics. While it had a fantastic pandemic, the backwash caught it with excessive levels of high-priced inventory. However, David says the reported numbers are starting to show a classic “Positive Divergence”, where the group’s profits are suppressed by de-stocking but its cashflows are restored in the same process. He believes the deep correction in the share price is over.

Report by Vision Research

Since Vision pitched their short thesis on Vidrala, Verallia and O-I Glass at our Equity Shorting Conference in mid-Mar the stocks have underperformed the Stoxx600 by ~8%. In the last couple of months they have also initiated 3 new European shorts, 3 new US shorts, and has readied a new $7bn+ European short (trades ~$20m/day and has short interest of <1%) for initiation next week. Please join Vision for a meeting while members of their team are in Paris (Jun 5th-6th), Zurich (Jun 7th) and London (Jun 8th-12th).

In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, AutoStore, Boohoo, Burlington, Colruyt, De'Longhi, Electrolux, Gerresheimer, H&M, Hargreaves Lansdown, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC, UiPath and Whirlpool.

Industrials

Report by Vision Research

Trades >$10m/day and has <1% short interest - will be lapping price increases at a time when volumes have turned negative and there are substitution threats and declining per capita usage of products at some of its largest customers. It trades >10x EV/EBITDA on 2023 estimates that call for 40% growth in EBITDA.

In the last 24 months, Vision has closed several shorts including: Allegro, Boohoo, Colruyt, H&M, Inditex, New Relic, Nokian Tyres, Peloton, Similarweb, Thule, Trex, TSMC and UiPath.

Report by Vision Research

Vision has issued 3 new consumer shorts in the past 3 weeks, 2 being European and 1 US. The most recent European short has a market cap >$3bn, trades >$25m/day and SI% <10%. The company has experienced market share losses and is seeing new entrants from Asia, potentially over-earned during the pandemic, has bullish estimates, and channel inventories that look bloated. European short ideas Vision has closed over recent months include Allegro (55% alpha), Colruyt (40%), Thule Group (>30%) and Nokian Tyres (>20%).