Energy

Report by EM Spreads

Vista announced the acquisition of Equinor’s non-operating interests in Bandurria Sur and Bajo del Toro, reinforcing its scale in the core of Vaca Muerta with low-cost, oil-weighted, cash-generative production. EM Spreads views the transaction as credit supportive, adding immediate EBITDA at implied multiples well below Vista’s own trading levels, while limiting execution risk through producing assets and established infrastructure, despite YPF remaining operator. The earn-out structure further improves downside protection by linking additional payments to higher oil prices. At current levels, EM Spreads maintains their Overweight view on Vista, preferring the 2033s for their better risk-adjusted balance of carry, duration and Argentina exposure.

Report by MYST Advisors

Common themes from MYST's latest buy-side event focused on cyclicals / companies trading at peak, potential “Trump losers” and companies facing inventory headwinds. The most compelling ideas include:

Bentley Systems (BSY) - Mining / renewables weakness to curb ARR growth; Trump could threaten IIJA tailwind.
Powell Industries (POWL) - Absurdly valued, highly cyclical business with peaking fundamentals & large insider selling.
Starbucks (SBUX) - Litany of earnings headwinds not fully appreciated under “abysmal” new CEO.
Toro (TTC) - Recent FY24 guidance a “Hail Mary” amid rising DSO’s / Inventory Days.