Report by Insight Investment Research

Robert Crimes remains bullish on the Infrastructure sector, citing strong long-term traffic growth, resilient IRRs (averaging 11.3%, +290bps above Insight’s 8.5% Ke) and deep value in listed equities trading ~40% below NAV, despite private market transactions averaging just -3% below NAV over the past decade. Towers top the table with +136% weighted average upside, with Robert favouring Cellnex over Inwit. Railroads rank second at +113% average upside, favouring Canadian National Railway over Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific Kansas City. Contractors offer +74% upside, with Ferrovial standing out vs. Eiffage and Vinci. Airports offer +42% upside but stronger opportunities are seen in Europe with ADP, Aena and FH Zurich all offering 60%+ upside. In Toll Roads, average upside is only +19% but stock selection is key, with Salik Robert’s preferred pick.

Industrials

Report by Insight Investment Research

The shares have risen ~30% YTD (+75% 1Y), reaching Insight’s €75 SOTP-based TP. While recent tariff increases and the successful execution of a major capex programme have supported sentiment, the stock now trades at 8.2x 2026E EV/EBITDA (vs. 7.6x LT avg.) and looks overvalued vs. peers. Structural constraints persist, with Frankfurt’s majority state ownership, unionised workforce and insourced ground handling keeping EBITDA margins low. Aviation returns are weak, with NOPAT/RAB averaging just 3.2% in 2010-19 and only 5.4% by 2040E, still 120bps below Insight’s 6.6% WACC. Tariffs are expected to average just +2.0% p.a. through 2050E, despite high Aviation capex (€390m p.a.). With DPS resuming at only €1.0 in 2025E (1.3% yield), Insight has a Sell rating on the stock, preferring ADP (+70% upside), Aena (+55%) and FH Zurich (+55%).

Industrials

Report by Insight Investment Research

GMR's restructuring should be a catalyst for ADP with listing to clarify its market value. Robert Crimes sees 4 benefits: 1) Simplify the shareholder structure as “New GIL” will include all GMR’s pure airport assets. 2) Deleverage GIL’s balance sheet. 3) Provide more visibly of the listed value and liquidity for ADP’s stake in New GIL. 4) Serve as a platform for GMR Airports to capture new growth opportunities in India and globally. ADP shares are down >10% over the last year and are still significantly below their pre-Covid level. Robert believes ADP’s shares are over-discounting concerns over future Paris regulation, slow Chinese pax recovery, higher real bond yields and French elections. ADP is his top airport pick. TP €227 (95% upside).