Report by David Woo Unbound

David believes it is a combination of both higher oil prices and the AI rally that has driven up real yields. The release of Claude Mythos reignited the AI trade, strengthening the view that AI will unleash a productivity boom in the economy, which may be one reason why long-term real yields have repriced higher. Another factor is the positive wealth effect associated with the AI rally, supposedly meaning that the Fed can focus more on the upside inflation risks posed by higher oil prices than on the downside risks to growth. However, David is sceptical of the rally continuing; frontier model capabilities are plateauing and companies are now imposing stricter budgets on AI token usage. The growth path Anthropic recently experienced could be unsustainable and the AI rally might be becoming even more narrow. It’s too early to buy bonds, but a steepener is starting to make sense again.

Report by MYST Advisors

MYST’s buyside events continue to deliver impressive performance (~19% avg. alpha on highlighted ideas at their previous Special Sits Forum). Their latest event featured a high number of potential takeouts / M&A plays, business separations, several Media stocks and various AI-related companies. The most compelling ideas included:

Chemours (CC US) - Refrigerant share gains + “free kicker” from steepening China TiO2 cost curve. TP $46 (110% upside).
ITT (ITT US) - High-quality pumps pure-play experiencing positive mix shift. TP $284 (45% upside).
Valmont Industries (VMI US) - “Non-obvious” AI infrastructure play benefitting from utility pole pricing inflection. TP $709 (35% upside).
Fundrise Innovation Fund (VCX US) - AI / Anthropic proxy trading at ~10x NAV with upcoming lock-up expiry catalyst. TP $50 (75% downside).

Report by Aitken Advisors

People are gregarious and instinctively follow the impulses of the herd, remarks James Aitken. The past two weeks have been a reminder of the mob mentality, and with dystopian projections on AI hysteria reaching millions of views, James believes we are approaching peak AI hysteria. Just remember when scouring the news: why am I reading this now and who benefits? XAI, Anthropic and OpenAI are all in windows to raise absurd amounts of money at lofty valuations, so it’s no surprise everyone is getting almost daily updates on LLMs about their improvements. DRAM, NAND and H100 rental prices suggest the AI juggernaut and associated memory shortage continues, yet so violent has been the recent shakedown that companies that would seem to have little risk of being disrupted by AI have been smashed, too. Just look at the current P/E of Microsoft (green) vs the current P/E of Colgate (red).

Report by Radio Free Mobile

One would have expected Anthropic’s latest innovation to be part of its premium tier, but the fact it is free is a sign that the race to the bottom, kicked off by Meta, is already underway. Richard Windsor sees it as a sign that the company is struggling to attract users to its platform in an already competitive environment. There are still no signs of the promised superintelligence on the horizon. Current expectations and valuations are unrealistic, and we will likely see the reset begin in the venture capital space as start-ups fail to meet their targets and go back to their backers for more money. Against this backdrop, everyone is going to take a hit, but the least pain is likely to be felt by Nvidia and TSMC. Richard prefers adjacencies of inference at the edge and nuclear power as the best way to get exposure to AI.