Berkshire’s Taylor Morrison deal signals homebuilder cycle bottom
Report by Housing Research Center
Alex Barron believes the acquisition is an important signal for the US homebuilder sector, supporting his view that the bottom of the cycle is here and now is an opportune time to buy into the sector at great valuations. The deal values TMHC at 1.24x 2Q26 book value, 1.17x Alex’s 2026E book value and 12.9x 2026E EPS. His fair value estimate was $72/share. While Berkshire is unlikely to pursue an immediate acquisition spree, the deal opens the door for TMHC to become a larger consolidator over time. Alex also notes rising sector M&A, including Dream Finders attempted hostile bid for Beazer Homes, which he thinks would likely need to move closer to 0.8-0.9x book value to succeed.