Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers
Company Research
What happens when retail investors wake up?
The April-July rally was driven by the perception that the tariff war was over. Since then, retail investors have flooded the stock market with reckless inflows, remarks Michael Belkin. The IG stock market betting site registered 100% of investors being long this past weekend, which he has never seen before. Tariff rates have further to go, and this will be incredibly bearish for the stock market. Corporate insiders (like NVIDIA) are already selling shares, unloading into the unsuspecting hands of retail and institutional investors. Michael says it is clear that we are in a bubble, but many refuse to see it. Defensive sectors have a coiled spring forecast and a long-term model outperform forecast, but Michael’s top picks are gold and energy stocks, including Newmont and Barrick.
Edition: 215
- 11 July, 2025
High beta gold stocks outperforming peers
The Global Mining Research team research the correlation of stocks to the gold price and the beta of those stocks. The stocks with consistently high beta to the gold price over the past five years are Alamos Gold, Genesis Minerals, IAMGOLD, Kinross Gold, Lundin Gold and Torex Gold Resources. Stocks with a weak beta to gold price over the past five years are B2Gold, Centerra Gold, Endeavour Mining, Barrick Gold, Newmont and SSR Mining (except 2025), each with mine or management issues, heightened risk or M&A troubles. Market preference for gold stocks appears to be more driven by investor perception rather than quantifiable valuation or sensitivity measures, and investors are preferring stocks with “issues” and aren’t seeking deeply discounted cheap stocks. Preferred gold stocks are BUY-rated Agnico (delivery and lower-risk portfolio), Kinross (risk reduction and execution), Equinox (transitions from project development to cash generation), IAMGOLD (Côté ramp up and derisking) and Lundin Gold (FDN continues to outperform).
Edition: 209
- 18 April, 2025
Gold: Can higher prices translate into cash?
All too often in the last decade for the gold sector, fully loaded costs have come close to equalling the received price. Therefore, one reason gold equities have likely recently lagged spot prices reflects a degree of market scepticism of the sector's ability to translate higher prices into “cash”. Unfortunately, the senior producers have often been key protagonists, but this isn’t the case for all gold stocks. Herein, David Radclyffe updates the sector cost analysis including highlighting Free Cash Flow (FCF) costs and FCF costs plus dividends, seeking to identify those stocks that could bank the proceeds of higher spot prices in 2024. The notional spot margin after base case dividends in 2024E for Agnico Eagle Mines / Barrick Gold Corp / Newmont is ~US$395/GEO, up from US$200/GEO in 2023. However, the best cash notional margins in 2024E could be delivered by Evolution Mining, Lundin Gold, Centerra Gold, and Barrick Gold Corp.
Edition: 186
- 17 May, 2024
Short Shots
Is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the “Negatively Inflecting” and “Toppy” columns within Vermilion’s Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Charts highlighted include Corteva (see above), Enphase Energy, General Mills, Kraft Heinz, Hershey, MarketAxess, Moderna, Newmont, Penumbra, Roblox, SolarEdge and Valmont Industries.
Edition: 167
- 18 August, 2023
Foreign ownership cycle of Australian gold production
David Radclyffe’s latest gold sector report examines the M&A cycle in Australia, with the country having witnessed a full cycle of foreign acquisitions. The trend started with the significant loss of Australian mines, peaking in 2003 at 60% foreign ownership. Over the years the trend reversed, but now the cycle has moved back to Australian gold companies and assets being attractively priced to international peers. With the proposed acquisition of Newcrest by Newmont, we could see foreign ownership levels lift back to ~40%. Northern Star and Evolution appear well poised to attract domestic investors looking to move on from Newcrest and to take advantage of the next phase of industry rationalisation in Australia.
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Does gold M&A create value? A rational screen offers clues
The recent proposed offer by Newmont to acquire Newcrest demonstrates that corporate M&A is alive and well in the gold sector, but it also raises the question as to whether it creates value. David Radclyffe’s latest report analyses major mergers over the past five years in the gold sector, concluding that most deals do not create lasting value – less than one-third show positive returns a year after the deal. Global Mining Research have developed a screen to explain why some deals generate a positive initial market reaction and others do not, providing investors with a ready tool.
Edition: 154
- 17 February, 2023
More gold miners addressing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG)
David Radclyffe’s latest report examines the GHG reporting structures and emission reduction/mitigation plans for gold stocks covered by Global Mining Research (GMR). Interestingly, scope 1 & 2 GHG intensity increased by 35% for CO2-e t/GEO from 2015 to 2021, highlighting the challenges ahead for miners to achieve reduction targets. Within the GMR universe, Barrick continues to provide the clearest pathway. Newmont has a list of GHG initiatives, while GFI and NST provide timelines to 2030. Most other gold miners need to lift their game as few show a tangible commitment to GHG reduction.
Edition: 146
- 14 October, 2022
Barrick Gold (ABX CN) Canada
Materials
Defence wins championships - gold's precedent of outperforming amidst real GDP loss and high inflation offers a defensive diversification opportunity for Veritas’ V-list model portfolio (1-yr +8.95% vs. S&P/TSX Composite -3.87%). The new ABX combines low-cost assets with a proven CEO that will not destroy value in expensive acquisitions. ABX is trading at low P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples compared to Newmont and Agnico Eagle despite higher profitability per ounce of gold produced, a higher dividend pay-out and an attractive buyback programme in place. TP C$32 (40% upside).
Edition: 139
- 08 July, 2022
Gold and gold mining stocks are attractive
Higher inflation is the catalyst that gold prices have been waiting for and it’s time to act; Michael Belkin recommends LONG GDX gold stock and GLD gold ETFs. Michael also follows every investable gold/silver/platinum mining stock in the world and advises investors to stay away from Newmont or Barrick, which are underperforming the GDX. Instead, opt for mid-sized producers such as Kinross, SSR Mining or Eldorado Gold.
Edition: 124
- 26 November, 2021
LatAM gold producers
One-fifth of global gold production is sourced from Latin America, but investors should be wary of the higher risk regions. David Radclyffe’s latest report examines these small but important nations. Key takeaways include Newmont remaining the preferred senior gold stock, and Torex (in Mexico) and Lundin Gold (in Ecuador) named as preferred mid-sized gold stocks with growth and value appeal in the region.
Edition: 123
- 12 November, 2021