Nexperia dispute highlights Europe’s semiconductor dilemma

Technology

the IDEA!

The escalating dispute between the Dutch government, China and chipmaker Nexperia has become a flashpoint in the global semiconductor power struggle. With parent company Wingtech already on a US trade blacklist and facing tighter restrictions, Nexperia’s plan to separate its Chinese and European operations is now in jeopardy. The export ban poses an immediate risk to Europe’s industrial supply chain, especially in the automotive sector. Finding and certifying alternative suppliers could take months, echoing the chip shortages of 2021/22. Strategically, it spotlights the West’s push for technological sovereignty and the Netherlands’ pivotal role in the China–West tech decoupling. Several (Dutch) companies could be affected including ASML, NXP, Philips and ASM International.

- 17 October, 2025

Is it finally time to buy Cyclicals?

AIR Capital

At a time when economists are slashing year-end targets for major equity indices, star asset managers are forecasting the dollar’s demise, the collapse of the US economy and gold prices surging further, the real story has already begun and it’s the exact opposite. Recent sector rotation suggests markets are anticipating a brief global GDP contraction, followed by a rapid and robust rebound. Q1 results in Europe are strong. Companies are quickly adjusting supply chains to outmanoeuvre Trump’s tariffs. By early Jun, the tariff story will be old news and business will be almost back to normal. Stop overthinking and trust corporate agility. The real opportunity is in quality cyclicals - cash-rich, order-heavy, sector-dominating companies with rock-solid fundamentals. AIR’s top picks include Airbus, ASM International, Renault, Rexel, Schneider and Vestas Wind.

- 02 May, 2025

SAP (SAP GR) Germany

Technology

Cerundolo Investment Research

Guy Cerundolo provides a basket of long ideas in Europe. These stocks have good and improving multi-factor model scores. In addition to SAP (see chart) he also highlights companies including ASM International, Assa Abloy, CRH, Ferrovial, Philips, Rolls-Royce and Tesco.

- 09 August, 2024

ASM International (ASM NA) Netherlands

Technology

the IDEA!

Results were well ahead of market consensus. Furthermore, the sales mix was strong / contained a high contribution from China which resulted in an adjusted gross margin of 48.9% (at the high end of its mid-term guidance range of 46-50%). Order intake was outstanding, especially when accounting for the generally weaker market conditions. This year investments will be at an elevated level (€150-200m) and absorb a large chunk from the net cash from operating activities. However, in the years ahead FCF should accelerate based upon growing revenues, improving profitability and lower capex (€100-180m). Given ASM’s modest valuation and growth potential the IDEA! remains bullish.

- 27 October, 2023

ASM International (ASM NA) Netherlands

Technology

Forensic Alpha

While most investors in ASM are focused on the impact of macro headwinds in the semiconductor industry, Forensic Alpha’s systems noticed an odd movement in the profile of aged receivables - 20% of receivables are now past-due, with 10% now past due more than 30 days (vs. 2% in 2021). By the standards of the industry this is significant and should elicit more questions from investors around the current state of ASM's customers.

- 17 March, 2023