EVENTS:   Best Equity Short Ideas Conference Call 12 - Zach Shannon/Corto Capital Advisors & Craig Huber/Huber Research Partners & Thomas Beevers /Forensic Alpha & Ed Steele/Iron Blue Financials & Bill Campbell/Paragon Intel - 12 Nov 25   Will AI Deflate the World? Macro Lessons from Three Industrial Revolutions and China - Manoj Pradhan/Talking Heads Macro - 13 Nov 25     ROADSHOWS: Forest Products Sector Equity and Commodity Research With Expertise in Distressed Debt - Kevin Mason /ERA Research   •   London   12 - 14 Nov 25       Buyside to Buyside Forum and Expert Calls across TMT, Consumer, Healthcare and Fintech - Andrew Peters /Revelare Partners   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25       Fundamental US Healthcare Short Ideas - Dr Elliot Favus /Favus Institutional Research   •   London   17 - 19 Nov 25      

Fortnightly Publication Highlighting Latest Insights From IRF Providers

Company Research

Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB UH) United Arab Emirates

Financials

Fighting Financials

ADCB’s share price has already risen ~40% since Fighting Financials turned bullish in Jul 24, yet they continue to anticipate further upside. The company last week announced its intention to double profits in the next five years. This doesn't seem unreasonable given it doubled profits in the last five years and has good momentum today, having grown PBT at +26% in FY24 y/y. However, consensus is still modelling only mid-single digit annual EPS growth across FY25e and FY26e. ADCB also benefits from the UAE's dollar peg, low tax, geopolitical neutrality and a higher oil price. Fighting Financials core portfolio was up 15% in 4Q24 and is currently +6% YTD with ADCB a key contributor.

Edition: 204

- 07 February, 2025


Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB UH) United Arab Emirates

Financials

AlphaMena

The share price has risen more than 150% post Covid, but AlphaMena still sees over 30% upside. Strong 1Q24 results were reassuring and AlphaMena remains confident about ADCB’s business model based on the expansion of its core businesses powered by digitisation, portfolio de-risking and disciplined cost management. The lender also possesses the highest rating on AlphaMena’s Fundamental Strength Indicator, a set of metrics that help gauge stocks on their financial and operating performance. The stock continues to trade at a discount to its 2019 P/B while the organic capital generation has noticeably improved. Finally, ADCB offers a generous payout (7% dividend yield).

Edition: 189

- 28 June, 2024