10Q / 10K text analysis
By utilising AI, NLP, data analytics and qualitative analyst oversight, 280First can glean material and actionable insights on companies which will be missed by most institutional investors. Recent highlights include: 1) Lockheed Martin - changing expectations for future aircraft delivery; LMT’s 2023 10K no longer references its previously expected 156 per year delivery rate. 2) Adobe - brighter capital resources outlook. Acquisitions planned? 3) Alphabet - higher expectations for operating margin trend. 4) Comcast - concerns on multichannel video provider agreements. 5) Mondelez - losing shelf space due to disputes. Delay / unable to raise prices. 6) Sysco - dialling back growth expectations.
Edition: 179
- 09 February, 2024
Technology
Abacus has been searching for companies with a very clear Generative AI monetisation roadmap, with a large TAM and revenue growth acceleration implications starting soon. ADBE's recent innovation has been amazing, the speed and quality of Firefly's launch is highly unusual for a company of its size, suggesting a new product cycle is imminent. ADBE is in an industry vertical that is clearly at the cutting edge of workflow adoption, not all verticals will benefit as fast. LLMs are tools, and tools need distribution - SaaS platforms are best positioned to benefit. SaaS growth in general will increase again due to an AI product cycle after the cyclical slowdown.
Edition: 164
- 07 July, 2023
Technology
The presenter (at MYST’s latest TMT Idea Forum) views TEAM as a timely opportunity due to its nascent SaaS transition that he describes as “the most terminal value-accretive” he has ever seen. He models post-transition FCF of $20-25/share (vs. consensus at ~$10/share), but says this could prove conservative, as he notes that Autodesk and Adobe both saw FCF generation increase by ~5x over the course of their transitions. He also highlights a key misperception among investors, with many expecting just ~16% of the installed base to see a material repricing of 3-4x vs. his belief that 80% will reprice to ~8x (or more) pre-transition ARR. TP $550 (~230% upside).
Edition: 162
- 09 June, 2023
Communications
Using Cash Flow Returns On Investments based valuation tools, Meta Platforms is looking significantly undervalued. ROCGA’s portal has been built using the Cash Flow Returns On Investments methodology. It allows you to identify, research and value listed companies. They have 15 years of clean fundamental data and you can model and assess companies in seconds. Current coverage: 1,010 North American, 515 UK and 440 European companies. Other companies identified include eBay, United Parcel Service and Adobe. More details on ROCGA’s systematic and interactive valuation tools can be found here. A free trial is available on request.
Edition: 152
- 20 January, 2023
Technology
David Ricks, a Non Executive since 2018, purchased $337,000 of stock on the 27th September at $280.56, increasing his holding by 30%. His only previous trades in the company were both for less than $20,000. He has been an extremely rare buyer across his roles. As Chair and CEO at Eli Lilly his only buy was for $500,000 in October 2019, a purchase that was very well timed, and currently Adobe do not have a requirement for directors to buy shares to meet ownership requirements.
Edition: 145
- 30 September, 2022